Boyne Mountain

000
FXUS63 KAPX 301734
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
134 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some lake induced clouds/showers early today. Slight rain
  chances for some Sat night/Sunday. 

- Cooler today then warming again.

- Better rain threat Monday night and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Cold advection underway on nw low-level flow, ahead of high
pressure building into MN/WI. Enough moisture and lake
instability on Superior to generate lake effect rain showers
into eastern upper MI. Lake clouds have been expanding in
northern lower MI, but the moisture depth is shallower, and 
little if any precip down here.

Upstream high pressure will be over western sections of the
forecast by dusk today. Mid-level subsidence and drying will
increase today, lowering inversion heights. Sct lake effect 
rain showers will continue in the eastern UP this morning, 
mainly early. Those will shut down, though the eastern UP 
remains on the mostly cloudy side. Northern lower MI will 
eventually mix out to partly-mostly sunny this afternoon. 

High pressure continues toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, where it
stalls for a couple day before heading further east. Southerly
low-level return flow begins Saturday, and continues until... 
until something moves in from the west and disrupts it. That
won't be until the middle part of next week. However, the
tendency for isentropic ascent aloft to generate precip will be
fighting off rising heights, at least thru the end of the
weekend. By Sunday, a shortwave ridge will arrive overhead. The
building ridge should win out, most of the time, in most of the
area. However, an isolated shower may be possible Sat night/ 
Sunday for along the immediate nw lower MI coast, on up across 
the eastern UP. 

Pops do continue to increase for Monday night and beyond. A
large cyclone is likely to develop in the lee of the central
Rockies, then mature as it ejects toward the northern lakes.
This system could well be in a weakening state by the time it 
actually gets here, but abundant moisture will be pushed north 
ahead of it. 

Temps will be briefly somewhat cooler today, but steadily
rebound thru the weekend into early next week. Our next cooldown
looks most likely late next week? Maybe? We'll see.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR/marginally VFR with lake effect cigs of SCT-BKN at 3 to 5 
kft. NW winds of 5 to 10kts with occasional G15kts will continue
through 23z. Winds will become calm overnight. Chances for FG/BR
impacts near KAPN/KCIU exist from 08z through 12z. Best chances
for impacts is near KAPN, however FG/BR may remain patchy enough
to not impact terminal direct but remain in the vicinity. S/SE
winds AOB 8kts with no vis and cig impacts after 12z through 
the end of the period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ322.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...ELD