Brandywine

000
FXUS61 KCLE 151739
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes 
were needed with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through late this 
week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest Ohio tonight. 

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
The majority of the forecast area should remain dry through this 
evening ahead of a period of unsettled weather. Low pressure pushing 
east across Ontario into Quebec will lift a warm front across the 
forecast area today. After a brief window of cooler conditions, 
highs will rise into the low/mid 80s for most and the upper 70s for 
eastern zones. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach the 
region from the west as the low drags a cold front into the eastern 
Great Lakes tonight. There remains some potential for an isolated 
strong to severe thunderstorm in Northwest Ohio where the SWODY1 
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains.Primary hazard will be
damaging wind gusts. However, confidence remains fairly low 
given the disjointed timing of best instability and the arrival 
of the cold front. In addition to an isolated strong storm, 
there remains the potential for locally heavy rainfall within 
these storms across Northwest Ohio. The WPC maintains their Day 
1 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across 
Northwest Ohio tonight. Will continue to monitor the locally 
heavy rainfall potential as recent runs of the HREF and REFS 
highlight stripe of 6-hour rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 
inches in their localized probability-matched mean products. 

The cold front will waver across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into 
Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be 
likely through late week. There remains uncertainty on if any storms 
will reach strong to severe limits mid to late week given the 
placement of the surface boundary. Despite this, a very warm and 
moist airmass will be in place with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0 inch 
range. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, 
particulary in training showers and thunderstorms. 

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
High pressure and dry conditions briefly return Friday into
early Saturday before unsettled weather returns. A series of 
shortwaves aloft will move overhead Saturday into early next 
week. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday 
afternoon into Monday, though forecast confidence decreases 
Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions should continue across the region through 04-06Z
tonight as precipitation moves in from the northwest and
bringing ceilings and visibility down to non-VFR. Until then,
mid to high level clouds expected with winds out of the south to
southwest around 10 knots. There could be some gusts up to 15-20
knots, primarily for KERI with the downsloping effect. 
Precipitation will move in late tonight impacting KTOL and KFDY
initial, with a chance of thunderstorms early tomorrow morning.
With this TAF period, KCLE and KERI will be the only other 
sites seeing impacts from precipitation, the remaining sites 
should stay primarily dry until after the period. Ceilings 
across the region will drop down below 5kft by tomorrow morning 
with the northern sites down to MVFR with the precipitation. 
Winds will also flip to be more west to northwesterly, but 
remain light around 5 knots. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms
Wednesday through Thursday night. Non-VFR possible with showers
and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. 

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow between 15-20 knots continue today before turning 
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift 
northerly and decrease to 10-15 knots behind the cold front by 
Wednesday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds will continue 
though late week as the cold front wavers across the Ohio Valley 
region Wednesday into Thursday. No marine headlines are expected 
through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...13