Crotched Mountain

000
FXUS61 KGYX 011036
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
636 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast update this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Rain likely Sunday night into Monday, but widespread
significant rainfall is unlikely.

2. Humid conditions persist through the remainder of the week 
with daily chances for scattered thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Generally dry weather expected today into Sun for most of the 
area with early morning valley fog. Any showers this afternoon 
will likely be even more widely scattered than yesterday. 

Then filling low pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley will
help to increase moisture ahead of the next approaching trof. 
This is set to arrive locally sometime late Sun into Mon. 

Looking at ensemble guidance, the EFI continues to trend towards
higher values. Those higher values in the forecast area continue
to remain mainly over NH, less so into western Maine. Digging
into it further, ECMWF EPS probabilities of over 0.5 inches QPF
are just about 60 percent for the southern half of NH. Values
drop off pretty quickly to the northeast, to around 20 percent
by the time you reach the Midcoast. So we could very well be
looking at another rain event that peters out as it crosses the
local area. Embedded convective elements or outright
thunderstorms are possible as the frontal boundary tries to
cross the area, so localized amounts over an inch remain
possible. But it is hard to forecast more than a quarter inch on
any large scale basis at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The northeast CONUS will remain in a moisture advection regime 
through the remainder of the week, as the "Bermuda high" sets up
shop with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam offshore, 
indicating a rather anomalous ridge. This will result in a humid
week with daily diurnal chances for downpours/t-storms, and an 
extended period of dew points in the 60s-low 70s, given 
persistent southwest flow. This is much more of a typical El 
Nino summer pattern than what much of 2026 has brought thus far.

A closer inspection of the overall environment suggests heavy 
rainfall with low chances for organized convection, given high 
PWATs paired with weak shear and mid-level lapse rates. However 
given the scattered diurnal nature, it is likely each day will 
feature stretches of dry, albeit humid conditions too. 
Temperatures will be seasonable in the 80s, but it will 
certainly feel like midsummer with the increased humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through tonight: Patchy valley fog will continue thru sunrise,
especially at LEB and HIE. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail.
Only isolated showers or thunderstorms at best this afternoon,
so I do not anticipate including them in TAFs at this time. More
patchy valley fog is possible tonight, with local IFR or lower
conditions.

Outlook:

Sunday and Sunday night: Increasing clouds. MVFR to IFR CIGs
possible Sun night. Showers or thunderstorms possible across NH
late in the period.

Monday and Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms become more
widespread. MVFR and IFR likely, especially near the coast,
until front crosses the area.

Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Some showers
possible in the afternoon with local MVFR or lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru
the extended. As a front approaches Sun, southerly winds will 
increase and a few gusts near 25 kt are possible well outside 
of the bays. Guidance does not point towards a high chance of 
SCA conditions however. It is also possible that increasing 
moisture ahead of the front may lead to areas of fog developing 
Sun night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barker/Ekster/Legro
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro