Mad River Mountain

000
FXUS61 KCLE 011118
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The severe weather and flash flooding potential for Sunday continues 
to trend slightly more favorable but will need to see how the 
weather today progresses before considering Flood Watches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of rain with some thunderstorms are expected 
through Sunday. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times with some 
limited Flash Flooding potential on Sunday. Strong to severe storms 
are also possible Sunday afternoon.

2) Daily, scattered rain chances and near normal temperatures are 
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A low pressure system approaching the region today will be the
culprit in producing showers and storms this weekend with heavy
rainfall and strong to severe storm potential both on the table.
Showers will start scattered on Saturday with the main,
vertically stacked surface low remaining well west along the 
Mississippi River. Some mid-level vorticity advection will help
support some occasional showers today ahead of the low but
rainfall should be relatively light today for those that see
anything. The main show will start tonight as the low advances
east and additional moisture enters the region. Forecast
soundings across northern Ohio show PW values over 2 inches
tonight, which means that any rain that does occur will be
heavy, efficient rain. Any rain that develops will be moving
south to north with some speed but if recurring rain trains over
the same areas, then there will be flooding concerns tonight,
mainly in Northwest Ohio.

The trends for Sunday for heavy rainfall and strong to severe
storms is going up with this forecast package. The low will pass
to the south of the forecast area on Sunday. However, a
deformation band of precipitation will be on the north side of
this low, which will be well supported by the left exit region
of one upper level jet and the right entrance region of another
upper level jet. This broader support should allow for
widespread coverage of rain across the region on Sunday with
efficient rainfall rates and have a higher QPF forecast to
reflect these concerns. It would not be surprising for most 
folks to get at least one inch of rain this weekend but 
recurring rain episodes for any location would open up the 
potential for multiple inches of rain and an increased risk for 
Flash Flooding. On the severe threat, the low pressure system 
and upper level jet support are indicative of a decently sheared
environment that could allow for strong to severe storms to 
develop. The main concern for severe storms will be the 
instability. Rain and clouds across the region may limit the 
overall instability in the region and in turn the severe 
potential. However, there are hints that there could be a break 
in shower activity on Sunday morning, especially for the eastern
half of the forecast area. If this break does materialize, then
the severe potential for Sunday will continue to trend upward. 
The main storm concerns for Sunday will be strong to damaging 
wind gusts and even a low end concern for a tornado.

As of this morning, the area is delineated in a WPC Slight Risk
for Excessive Rainfall for today and Sunday and an SPC Marginal
Risk for Severe Weather for Sunday. There is potential for a
Flood Watch to be needed across the area, depending on how the
rain evolves today/tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper trough that will move through the region this weekend
will amplify Sunday night into Monday and eventually form an
upper level cut off low over the Tennessee Valley. This feature
will meander over the Ohio Valley next week and have enough lift
to allow for daily rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. This low
will get absorbed by an upper trough entering the region on
Wednesday. This upper trough will support a surface trough
across the region, which should allow for additional rain
chances on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. None of the days
next week will be a washout, but there will be scattered rain on
the scope that could allow for a brief impact. Temperatures
should be near normal in the 80s, perhaps slightly cooler if
there is more rain/cloud activity on a given day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Predominately VFR conditions will persist for much of today
ahead of showers and thunderstorms that are forecast to push
into the area beginning this afternoon and persisting into
Sunday. Within these storms through this evening, visibilities
may be briefly reduced to MVFR in the most developed storms. As
the low pressure driving this shift in weather becomes more 
centered near Ohio, ceilings are expected to gradually fall from
VFR to IFR by the end of this period. The exception may be KERI
which may linger in MVFR. Overall, widespread VFR conditions 
are expected to gradually diminish to IFR by the end of this 
period as low pressure moves east. 

Southeast winds tonight of 5 knots or less will gradually
increase today to be sustained at 5-10 knots. Local gusts up to
20 knots are possible across western terminal through this
evening. Near the end of the period, winds will gain a more
easterly component but remain 5-10 knots. 

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR in showers and thunderstorms
tonight through Sunday night. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms with potential for non-VFR continue Monday through
Wednesday, primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure centered over Illinois will continue to move east today 
into tomorrow, moving just south of the Lake Erie lakeshore which 
will keep the entire basin north of the center of the system. Given 
the positioning of Lake Erie in relation to the low, winds today 
will generally be from the southeast at 5-10 knots before gaining a 
more east-northeast component tonight. As winds shift to this 
position late today into tonight they will also increase to 10-20 
knots with the strongest winds expected in the western basin. This 
will result in waves building to 2-4 feet by Sunday morning. This 
period may need a very brief Small Craft Advisory, but given a bit 
of uncertainty in the timing of the low have opted to not issue this 
morning. As the center of the low shifts east on Sunday, winds will 
become more north-northeast and persist at 15-20 knots across the 
lake into Monday. This stretch of onshore flow may result in waves 
of 3-5 feet building across the western and central basins. With 
that direction as well, rip currents may be a concern along beaches 
in these areas. Will have to monitor future model guidance to 
determine the need for any marine headlines. By Monday, high 
pressure begin to nudge back into the area, allowing for calm marine 
conditions to return across Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04