Mt. Brighton

000
FXUS63 KDTX 301731
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
131 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler but still above normal temperatures today and Saturday.

- Low chance for a few light showers late Saturday towards central 
MI. 

- Warm conditions with humidity will be possible early to middle 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

High cloud has been spilling eastward into Southeast Michigan off of
frontal zone that is draped across portions of Mid Mississippi River
Valley. Relative humidity progs suggest some loss of coverage this 
evening and tonight. Warm front aloft will then lift eastward for 
Saturday leading to an increase in moisture and cloud at 10.0 kft 
agl. VFR conditions are anticipated.

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF 
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

DISCUSSION...

Upper Midwestern surface high pressure fully expands over lower MI 
today promoting mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies and a light 
northwest breeze. Thermal troughing following yesterday's cold front 
only glances the area, focused towards Lake Huron, supporting a 
'cool' day though still a few degrees above late October normals 
with highs ranging mid-50s (Thumb) to low 60s towards Ohio. 
Generally favorable radiative cooling setup tonight as the center of 
high pressure drifts overhead turning winds calm, though cirrus tied 
to a developing warm front over the Midwest will attempt to lift in 
from SW MI. This likely results in a decent SW-NE gradient in 
overnight lows with the northeastern half, where cloud cover will be 
lesser, seeing lows well into the lower 30s whereas the southwestern 
half see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 

Influence of said high holds for the bulk of the day Saturday 
maintaining dry conditions save for perhaps the Ohio border area. 
Aforementioned warm front lifts into the upper Mississippi/western 
Great Lakes latter half of Saturday before washing out Saturday 
night. Accompanying moisture transport is directed west of Lake 
Michigan as only the periphery of elevated theta-e reaches SE MI. 
Given the resident dry airmass still in place from the prior high, 
rain activity will struggle the further east it advances across the 
state. As a result, areas closer to central/south-central MI stand 
the best shot at seeing isolated to scattered light showers (only a 
few hundreths of QPF at best) Sat-Sat night.

Early week remains unclear wrt to rain chances as diffuse vorticity 
(tied to the old front) works into Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes. 
Secondary push of theta-e, now in the lower levels as well, offers a 
low chance for scattered light showers early Monday however weak 
synoptic forcing acts as a limiting factor with some model solutions 
remaining dry. Mid-late week period characterized by large Pacific 
Northwest upper trough slowly translating across the central CONUS. 
Slow moving attendant cold front eventually offers the areas next 
chances for wider spread rainfall as well as at least a brief return 
towards late fall temperatures.

MARINE...

Northwest flow holds for most of the day in the wake of a cold 
front. The cold air advection taking place behind the cold front 
will elevated mixing depths, allowing stronger air aloft to mix down 
which will sustain gusts ranging around 20 to 25 knots across Lake 
Huron through the morning. Localized gust potential up to 40 knots 
will be possible across north and north-central Lake Huron where the 
favorable fetch aligns. High pressure to then build in tonight and 
into the weekend which will then bring a period of light winds. A 
low pressure system will track across the Plains early next week, 
increasing chances for more active conditions across the Great Lakes 
by the midweek period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......AM


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