Smugglers' Notch

000
FXUS61 KALY 151747
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Capped PoPs at likely values for areas west of Albany on 
Thursday, as it does not look like a washout at this time with 
scattered/numerous coverage of showers. Also lowered NBM 
dewpoints this afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures moderate back to above normal levels for 
Wednesday through Thursday, along with increasing humidity and 
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, before 
unsettled conditions possibly develop late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure shifts east off the New England coast tonight, 
with warmer air aloft moving in from the west. So temperatures 
will be not as cold as last night. Also temperatures will warm 
back above normal on Wed, with a mix clouds and some sunshine. 
Highs expected to reach the upper 70s to around 80F in most 
valleys. Other than a few showers across the Adirondacks tonight
it should be mainly dry. A weakening cold front will approach 
from the NW on Wed, but limited forcing/moisture will likely 
only result in a few sprinkles in some spots. The front washes 
out and becomes diffuse over the area Wed night, with dry, mild
and slightly humid conditions.

The next appreciable chance of showers arrives on Thu, as a 
weak wave of low pressure is expected to track east along the 
old/diffuse front. Main time frame looks to be late Thu A.M. 
into Thu P.M. Most numerous showers look to move across areas 
from around Albany north/west. Will only mention a slight chance
of thunder west of Albany, as despite increasing moisture (PWAT
anomalies of +1 to +3 STDEV) limited instability of < 500 J/Kg 
SBCAPE is forecast. Scattered showers may linger into Thu 
evening from around ALB south/east, then drying expected Thu 
night with continued mild temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level troughing developing across SE Canada will send a 
cold front southward across our region Thu night, resulting in a
cooler and drier air mass filtering in on Fri. Dry/cool 
conditions should persist into Sat, as high pressure tracks 
eastward across southern Quebec. Temperatures expected to be 
below normal Fri night and Sat. The next chance of showers looks
to arrive Sat night into Sun, as a wave of low pressure and 
frontal system approach from the west. While at least some 
measurable rainfall appears likely across much of the area 
during this time, there is low confidence in areal 
coverage/duration of showers and QPF amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thru 18Z/Wed...VFR conditions are expected prior to 08Z-12Z/Wed
for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with mid and high clouds increasing 
ahead of a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes and upper 
level disturbance, as the surface high shifts offshore. The cigs
may lower to 4-6 kft AGL especially from KALB-KPSF northward 
06Z-12Z/Wed. We placed a VCSH group in for KGFL for some light 
showers nearby by around 08Z/Wed. KPSF may have some lower MVFR 
stratus form 08Z-12Z/Wed and we used a TEMPO group to account 
for this potential. MVFR stratus may continue into the late 
morning there, with VFR conditions for KGFL/KALB/KPOU with cigs 
4-5 kft AGL. 

The winds will be south to southeast at less than 10 KT this 
afternoon and will be light and variable in direction at 4 KT or
less overnight. Expect light southerly winds 7 KT or less from 
the late morning into the early afternoon. 

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...15