Snow Creek

000
FXUS63 KEAX 011134
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty North/Northwest Winds Today

- Cooler and Less Humid This Weekend

- Temperatures Rise By Middle of Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The cold front has pushed through all of Missouri during the 
overnight while the center of the surface cyclone heads toward the 
Great Lakes Region. Center of H5 closed-low is currently positioned 
over the IA-MO-IL triple point early this morning, with a 60 kt jet 
streak still positioned over much of Missouri and extreme eastern 
Kansas. This is helping to provide some lift for drizzle in northern 
forecast zones this morning, with overcast skies from lingering wrap 
around moisture. Dew point temperatures have already dropped into 
the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region with, temperatures 
dipping into the lower 60s in some spots of the forecast area. With 
the cyclone becoming vertically stacked, its eastward propagation 
has slowed, which has been leaving much of the middle Mississippi 
River Valley and lower Missouri River Valley in a stronger pressure 
gradient. This, along with CAA and downward momentum transport, will 
allow gusty north to northwesterly winds through much of this 
afternoon, and should start to see this diminish as the low finally 
pushes further eastward. Once the the last lobe of mid-level 
vorticity passes through, we should see any light sprinkle or 
drizzle activity come to an end. The remainder of the weekend will 
be marked by continued mid-level and upper-level northwesterly flow 
across the area, with exiting system becoming vertically stacked 
over the southern Great Lakes Region and Ohio River Valley. While 
this stalls there, an amplified H5 ridge develops over the western 
CONUS, with the Four Corners Region likely seeing a 594dam high 
setup, with the ridge axis then being pushed northeastward into the 
Upper Midwest. This is reinforced by a short-wave disturbance 
developing over western Canada. This setup over the weekend will 
result in temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s across the 
area, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.

For the next work week, the amplified mid-level ridge axis will 
force most of the Pacific Northwest short-wave disturbances in the 
far northern Plains and Canadian Prairie Provinces. Most deterministic 
solutions have H5 height rises progged across much of the Central 
CONUS, with strong H85 WAA occurring. This will begin to push 
temperatures back into the upper 80s and lower 90s, and ensemble 
probabilities for highs reaching above 90F steadily rise as the week 
progresses. Wednesday into Thursday, ridge axis will flatten as more 
short-wave activity emanates from the Pacific Northwest, with CVA 
tracking more toward the Central Plains. Ensemble guidance is still 
spread on the potential for precipitation development, with some 
solutions keeping the forcing much further north, while others are 
starting to hint it may reach our northwestern zones. Probabilities 
for measurable rainfall range from 15 to 30 percent, mainly for 
areas along Interstate 70 and northward. Next weekend, we are 
staring to see an increasing signal for an unsettled weather pattern 
that could bring multiple rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms. 
At this time though, inner-quartile spread for both measurable 
rainfall and temperatures is quite large.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Edge of MVFR stratus is starting to erode with sunrise for our
eastern Kansas and western Missouri TAF sites. Remainder of
Central Missouri will be in MVFR ceilings for much of Saturday
morning. For the KC Metro Terminals and STJ, expect a few more
observation to come in MVFR this morning, then should scatter
out between 14z-15z. The other main story will be breezy north
to northwesterly winds, around 30kts in northern Missouri, with
25kt gusts in at the TAF sites. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull