Snow Creek

000
FXUS63 KEAX 301714
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today, 
  mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River. 

- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday. 

- Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday
  night. There is some potential for strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows broad upper 
ridging to nearly zonal flow prevailing over the middle of the 
country. In the middle and lower levels, high pressure is centered 
over the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. This is leading to easterly 
to southeasterly flow at the surface and southerly to southwesterly 
flow in the mid-levels. This flow regime is leading to modest 
moisture advection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. 
Isentropic ascent, noted from 295K to 300K, was leading to scattered 
to widespread showers and storms from northeastern Kansas into 
northwestern Missouri, with decreasing coverage from northern into 
northeastern Missouri. Forecast soundings across northern Missouri 
show steep lapse rates above an inversion with a nearly saturated 
profile below that inversion. This leads to fairly robust elevated 
instability, for late October, with 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated 
instability. With the strongest mid and upper-level winds pushed 
north of the region, shear is relatively weak, and that is the 
main limiting factor preventing stronger convection across 
northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri. That said, with 
the ascent noted from 295K to 300K, instability available, and 
ahead of shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the 
Southern Plains, we should see scattered to widespread shower 
and thunderstorm activity today for areas along and north of the
Missouri river. 

For Saturday, ascent looks weaker/less focused, leading to lower 
chances for precipitation overall, despite what looks like thick 
cloud cover. Coverage of precipitation looks more isolated to 
scattered in this pattern. Transient shortwave ridging builds into 
the area Sunday, limiting precipitation chances. That shortwave 
ridging is in response to a deepening trough moving east from the 
Rockies. Strong southerly/southwesterly low to mid-level flow 
develops leading to very strong moisture transport into the region. 
This leads to very anomalously high precipitable water values
that are near or at the max percentiles in the NAEFS 
climatology. Instability looks weak overall but given the strong
kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for 
strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE 
environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for 
Monday afternoon and evening. 

In the wake of this early week system, temperatures fall back to 
near-normal levels, in the lower 60s for much of the area, for 
middle to later part of next week. The shortwave associated with the 
early week precipitation chances may be slow to depart the area. 
Deterministic models show the upper-low getting cutoff and 
meandering through the region. There's some indication of this in 
the ensemble 500mb clusters, though they never show the system 
cutting off. Rather, just slow eastward eastward progression and 
anomalously low 500mb heights through the lower Mississippi
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period. Showers are
expected to move in from the south later this evening,
potentially preceded by isolated thunderstorms. Have included
PROB30 for -TSRA for a few hours earlier in the evening at all
four TAF sites. -RA/-SHRA expected to continue overnight,
eventually clearing in the morning. Light easterly/southeasterly
surface winds. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Macko