Snowbird

000
FXUS65 KSLC 151211
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
611 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 954 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...


- Deep moisture will remain across southern Utah Tuesday, with a
  slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2/4) in place for much
  of southern Utah.

- Deep moisture will shift north and west with time through the
  week. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place
  for much of southern and eastern Utah through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 954 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...
A relatively cool and stable airmass resides across
much of northern and central Utah this evening, in the wake of a
cold front which is largely stalled along a line extending from
Moab to just north of Cedar City. Lingering moisture along and
south of this boundary supported isolated convection earlier this
afternoon, which has since shifted eastward into Colorado. 

The flow aloft will back on Tuesday in response to the next upper
low digging along the Pacific Northwest coastline, which will lift
the frontal boundary northward, and allow moisture to return
northward into southern and central Utah. This moisture return
will begin as early as late tonight, with some hi-res guidance
suggesting pre-dawn convection developing across southwest and
south central Utah, followed by a round of afternoon and evening
convection across central and southern Utah. There is a fair
amount of spread across the guidance spectrum with respect to
coverage and intensity of convection Tuesday afternoon/evening
across central and southern Utah, however the threat for heavy
rainfall will exist with any stronger/organized convection as 
deep layer shear increases above 20 kts. 

As the upper low continues to dig south along the coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, increased forcing will bring an increase in
convection as deep layer moisture spreads across the forecast
area. This will persist through Thursday as the upper low begins
translating east through the Great Basin, with the trough axis
finally swinging through the forecast area later Friday and sweeps
remaining moisture out of the area. 





&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the 
period. Dry conditions with a few high clouds will continue. Winds 
will remain light and diurnally driven. 

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for 
the entire airspace through the period. Mostly dry conditions with a 
few high clouds will continue with increasing southerly winds during 
the day. Convection develops across the eastern half of the airspace 
tomorrow afternoon with storms developing across portions of 
northern Utah in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 400 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026...
Moisture is returning to the Great Basin with the highest
moisture content across the eastern half of Utah. An area of low 
pressure across the northern Great Basin will help to develop 
showers and thunderstorms over the next few days across areas of 
eastern Utah. Additionally, southwest winds will be enhanced 
across western portions of Utah with gusts 30-40 mph possible each
afternoon. These areas will also see pockets of minimum RH in the
teens resulting in locally critical fire weather conditions. 
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal normals.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Seaman
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity