Sun Valley

000
FXUS66 KOTX 011146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday.

- Breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley Sunday night
  into Monday morning.

- Cooler temperatures for Sunday into Monday then warming back
  to slightly above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A robust cold front on Saturday will drive strong surface winds
and bring low humidity across the region, creating widespread 
critical to extreme fire weather conditions. Temperatures cool 
by 8-12 degrees on Sunday, though lingering breezy winds will 
keep fire weather conditions elevated. Warm, dry conditions 
return for start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong winds and dry conditions will bring widespread critical to 
extreme fire weather conditions on Saturday...

Today: Ensembles continue to indicate potential for a high 
impact fire weather event with strong winds and dry conditions. 
A strong +120kt upper level jet will move across WA as a Low 
swings into the Lower BC. Any chance of precip across the region
will limited to the Cascade Crest. The Low will push a strong 
dry cold front through the Inland Northwest with 850mb-500mb 
winds ranging from 30-60kts. The winds will mix down to the 
surface as the front passes. Westerly winds will begin to 
increase in the late morning and continue into the evening. 
Timing for the strongest winds will be around 2 to 8 PDT. 
Ensembles have been very consistent with speeds and timing. For 
speeds, sustained winds will be in the 20 to low 30 mph range. 
Weaker winds in the teens will be over the Idaho Panhandle. For 
gusts, a range of 30 to low 40s for most. The Idaho Panhandle 
will have gusts into the 20s. Outside of the Idaho Panhandle, 
probability of wind gusts greater than 35 mph is at least 60 
percent. Southeast Washington, Lewiston, and Western Columbia 
Basin including Waterville Plateau down to Wenatchee has 20-40 
percent probability for greater than 50 mph gusts. Impacts 
include blowing dust and minor tree and property damage. Highs 
for the day will be in the slightly cooler with a range of upper
70s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to 50s.

Sunday: While temperatures will be a lot cooler, winds will 
continue to be breezy. The region will see winds sustained in 
the teens with gusts into the 20s continuing to impact ongoing 
and new fires in the area. Winds will shift to out of the north 
and funnel down the Okanogan across the Waterville Plateau. 
Highs will be in the 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in 
the 40s to mid 50s.

Monday through Friday: A flat ridge will fill in behinds the 
exiting Low. It will be in place for most of the upcoming. 
Temperatures will rebound back into the 80s to low 90s. Winds 
will continue the diurnal trend of breezy afternoons and calm 
overnights. The warm, dry pattern will continue with no chances 
of beneficial precip for the start of August. Overnight lows 
will be in the 50s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mainly VFR through the 12z TAF cycle. Smoke and haze 
will bring brief impacts to visibilities around the region
(reductions to 6-9SM), but visibilities are expected to remain
VFR. A dry cold front will move through the region on Saturday.
Winds will begin to increase from the southwest around 
16-18Z and will remain gusty through 04-08Z. Sustained wind 
speeds will be in the teens to 20s with gusts around 30-40 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high
confidence in timing and speeds of winds. Moderate to high 
confidence in VFR visibilities prevailing at the TAF sites.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        87  51  77  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  87  52  76  50  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pullman        83  45  72  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Lewiston       93  57  79  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Colville       89  45  79  44  83  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Sandpoint      86  49  75  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Kellogg        84  49  70  48  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Moses Lake     88  52  81  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      84  57  79  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Omak           91  51  81  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this 
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern 
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower 
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Selkirk Mountains of Northeast 
     Washington (Zone 700)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this 
     evening for East Portion of North Cascades National 
     Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East 
     Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington 
     North Cascades (Zone 698).

     Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Chelan County,
     Okanogan County, Douglas County, Grant County, Ferry County,
     Stevens County, Pend Oreille County, Lincoln County, Spokane
     County, Asotin County.

ID...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this 
     evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 
     101).

     Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Latah County,
     Nez Perce County, Lewis County.

&&

$$