Wilmot Mountain

000
FXUS63 KMKX 301142
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
642 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry fall morning and early afternoon today, but sprinkles and
  light shower chances increase from southwest to northeast 
  later this afternoon and evening. 
 
- Light rain chances (40-70%) continue this evening through
  Saturday morning/afternoon  Rain chances then decrease 
  Saturday evening.
 
- Additional shower chances early next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

More fall-like conditions today with the crisp morning temps 
only warming into the 50s through the day. Winds will become 
more onshore off of Lake Michigan as high pressure works its way
across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon/evening resulting 
in extra moisture for southern WI. Meanwhile, will see low- 
level WAA and cloud cover spread in from the southwest to the 
northeast with a mid-level ripple. The moisture paired with 
increased low-level forcing should be enough to support 
increase sprinkles and light shower chances as these feature
lift into southern WI. I did lean more on some aggressive 
models and earlier arrival of precip such as the ARW bringing 
in sprinkle chances in as early as 18-21z for southern portions 
of the CWA, with light showers and better accumulations for the 
late afternoon and evening. Initial precip looks to be more
patchy to scattered in nature. However, better coverage and
increased chances (50-85%) are likely overnight into Saturday 
morning lingering into the afternoon. Then the forcing is 
progged to lift north followed by drier conditions for Saturday 
later afternoon and evening.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today (Friday) through Saturday night:

High pressure remains in place through today, gradually sliding
eastward as low pressure develops in the central Plains. Expect
early morning lows in the mid to upper 30s away from Lake
Michigan, with patchy fog and frost in low-lying areas. Light and
variable to calm winds expected through much of the day, becoming
east-southeasterly as low pressure lifts gradually northward and
warm frontogenesis develops across southern Wisconsin. High
temperatures in the upper 50s to perhaps 60 degrees in the
afternoon.

As warm frontogenesis begins to dominate the weather pattern this
evening, expect scattered showers to spread west to east along and
south of I-94. Very minimal MUCAPE around 150 J/kg near the WI/IL
border may allow for an isolated bolt of lightning, but
probabilities are very low (less than 10%). Overnight lows
expected to remain in the 40s with plenty of cloud cover and
increasing humidity. Rain showers will spread northward through
the remainder of southern Wisconsin into early Saturday morning,
gradually becoming more scattered to isolated as low pressure
propagates northward and frontogenesis weakens across the region.
With winds shifting to southeasterly and becoming breezy, expect
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s even with plenty of cloud cover. 

Last of the showers exit to the north into Saturday night, with
winds becoming light and variable. Lows in the mid 40s expected.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Sunday through Friday:

Ridging remaining across Lake Michigan will keep the majority of
southern Wisconsin dry on Sunday, with some potential for 
isolated showers with lingering moisture and WAA in the 
vicinity. Highs in the 60s are expected. Low pressure in the 
Plains deepens Sunday night as additional troughing propagates 
eastward over the Rockies and interacts with the surface low in 
the vicinity. This will lead to increasing southerly winds into 
Monday morning, leading to continued highs in the upper 60s. As 
low pressure deepens throughout Monday, it will eject into the 
northern Plains, bringing increasing rain chances (50-80%) to 
southern Wisconsin within the WAA region of the low. Low 
pressure continues to propagate northeastward into Minnesota by 
Tuesday morning, keeping southern Wisconsin within the WAA 
region and bringing continued rounds of rainfall (60-80% 
chances) throughout Monday night into Tuesday.

Uncertainty remains in the strength of low pressure, with the Euro
indicating a stronger low and the GFS and Canadian indicating a
stronger Northeast U.S. high preventing low pressure from
continuing to propagate eastward and weakening its impacts.
Regardless of exact model solution, precipitation will continue
across southern Wisconsin along the occluded front of this system
through Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low propagates into
western Ontario (40-60% chances precipitation through the period).
A transition to the cold frontal feature of this system occurs 
Wednesday, bringing an end to highs in the 60s by Thursday and a
return to highs in the 50s. With this cold front in the vicinity
into Thursday, continued shower and storm potential may also 
linger (20-35%).

A cold high pressure system sliding southward through the Canadian
Prairies will bring a return to northwesterly winds, dry
conditions, and highs in the low 50s by Friday.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period for southern 
WI. High clouds are spreading in this morning with light and 
variable winds, but mid-level clouds and more easterly winds are
progged to filter in through the afternoon as the high pressure
works its way across the region. With easterly flow and low- 
level WAA spreading into the area through the afternoon and 
evening, did lean more into the early arrival of patchy to 
scattered sprinkles and light showers later this afternoon and 
evening. Then more widespread and persistent light showers 
overnight lingering through Saturday morning with more 
southeasterly winds. May see pockets of MVFR ceilings and 
visibility moreso with this round of activity. 

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches will gradually slide eastward
from northern Minnesota to the eastern Great Lakes region today
through Saturday. Expect light and variable winds through Saturday
morning, becoming southeasterly and increasing into Saturday
afternoon as high pressure exits and low pressure around 29.8 
inches develops in the central High Plains. Conditions may become
hazardous to small craft in southern Wisconsin nearshore regions
during this time period.

Winds shift southerly and weaken as low pressure lifts into the 
northern Plains into Sunday. Low pressure then looks to deepen 
Monday into Monday night, bringing increasing southeasterly winds
and building waves. Winds remain strong and southeasterly through
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with isolated gales possible. Low 
pressure exits into southern Canada into Wednesday, with winds 
gradually shifting southwesterly and diminishing.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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