Eldora

000
FXUS65 KBOU 301911
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
111 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of again fog tonight across northeast and eastern Colorado.

- Mild and mostly dry through Saturday.

- Unsettled weather returns late Sunday and Monday.Mountain snow
  is likely (>70% chance) above 8500ft during thistime. High 
  uncertainty remains for the foothills and plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery showsa shortwave trough over 
southern California bringing widespread clouds and scattered rain 
showers to the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this, there is a dry 
slot which will result in mostly clear skies for northeast 
Colorado through this evening. High clouds then increase late 
tonight and persist through Saturday morning. At the surface, the 
pattern changes very little as a surface trough remains near the 
base of the foothills, which will help keep low level moisture in 
place over northeast Colorado. This will lead to another round of 
fog late tonight and Saturday morning. The mid and high clouds 
associated with the shortwave trough tracking east-northeast 
across the intermountain west will shift east of the area midday 
Saturday. Mostly sunny skies are expected during the afternoon, 
helping to push temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s across 
northeast Colorado.

Southwest flow aloft will increase during the day Sunday as two 
systems off to the west take aim at the region. The first one 
system, a shortwave trough moves across southern California and 
tracks east-northeast Sunday and Monday. This system will run 
ahead of the second system on Sunday, carrying subtropical 
moisture with it and, like many of the recent systems, bring 
moderate to heavy rain to the Desert Southwest and Four Corners 
Region. For north central and northeast Colorado, this has 
resulted in scattered showers over the mountains and just cloudy 
skies for northeast Colorado. The second system tracks eastward 
across Oregon and northern California Sunday and then moves across
Colorado Monday. The best chance for rain and mountain snow will 
come late Sunday night and Monday as the main trough moves 
overhead. The snow level starts off high, above 11,000 feet but 
quickly lowers to 8,500 to 9,000 feet by Monday morning. Snow is 
expected to continue into Monday night when flow aloft turns 
north-northwesterly, a somewhat favorable direction for orographic
lift across the north central mountains. Temperatures will be 
cool Monday due to the overhead trough and cloud cover. Northerly 
flow behind the trough Tuesday will keep temperatures cool with 
highs in the 50s with dry conditions.A few earlier model runs 
combined these two systems over the Central Rockies producing a 
strong storm system, but this scenario now looks very unlikely.

The broad troughiness shifts east of the area sometime late 
Tuesday/early Wednesday with ridging replacingit, most likely for
Wednesday. We expect to see a bump up in temperatures with dry 
conditions. The ridging is expected to progress east of the area 
on Thursday. What replaces it is still unclear. The next upper 
level trough moves over the western states onThursday. Still very
little model agreement on the placement, strength, and track of 
the upper level trough for Thursday and Friday. For the forecast, 
temperatures should be near normal. We will have some low PoPs in 
the mountains and keep the plains dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Fog has moved out of the TAF sites, leaving VFR conditions through
this evening. Winds will be light from the east/northeast this
afternoon, becoming light and variable this evening, and turning
towards drainage overnight. Models have another circulation
forming to the north and east of DEN, turning winds northerly or
variable at the TAF sites around 12Z. Fog is forecast to develop 
again in the early morning, approaching BJC and DEN around 10Z or 
11Z, potentially moving over the airports between 12Z and 16Z. We 
have a tempo for LIFR conditions during that time window at DEN
and BJC. Fog will start to clear between 16Z and 18Z. Once again,
fog is expected to stay just to the north of APA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BM
AVIATION...AP