Jay Peak

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 224 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 224 AM EDT Friday...

1. Some lingering showers and cooler weather is expected across
the region today following a cold front. Mostly dry and 
seasonable conditions are expected through the weekend into the 
start of next week. 

2. Increased fire weather concerns through this weekend. 

3. Two fronts with little moisture or forcing will offer low 
end chances for rain early next week, before becoming dry and 
warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 224 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The cold front continues to move through the 
region this morning, with dwindling rain showers and plentiful 
cloud cover along with it. Rainfall amounts with this feature 
have generally been a few hundredths, although some locations 
across northern New York have observed a few tenths on an inch 
of rain. Strong cold air advection will take place behind the 
front today, with increased clouds and some chances for some 
lingering showers in the favored upslope areas with some 
flurries possible in the higher terrain. Temperatures on Friday 
will be more seasonable compared to yesterday, with highs in the
upper 40s and 50s. 

Heading into the weekend and the start of next week, surface 
high pressure looks to build into the region once again. This 
will lead to another stretch of dry weather, with ample 
sunshine, light winds, and pleasant conditions to round out 
October and welcome the start of November. Temperatures on 
Saturday will be a little on the cooler side, with highs 
generally in the mid 40s to low 50s, moderating towards the 
start of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy winds and lower relative humidity values 
will lead to increased fire weather concerns over the next few 
days, especially given the plentiful dry leaf litter across the 
area serving as fuel. Wind gusts today and Friday will generally
be in the 15 to 25 mph range, with some higher gusts are 
possible. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be 
between 40 to 55 percent for today. Heading into the weekend, 
minimum relative humidity values should drop into the 30 to 45 
percent range, but winds look to be much lighter. Recent 
rainfall amounts remain rather negligible, with most locations 
only receiving a few hundredths of an inch, but a few locations 
across northern New York received over 0.1 inches of rain with 
these showers. Cloud cover across the region today will help 
limit some of these fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There remains little change to the details 
regarding a frontal boundary expected to shift southwards Monday
night into Tuesday. Upper level vorticity will shift east, and 
an incoming ridge will help dissipate the front. It's very 
possible it does not even make it to the international border, 
but a handful of scenarios depict it reaching at least far 
northern Vermont. For late Tuesday into Wednesday, a surface low
will lift from the Plains north towards James Bay. It will send
a warm front into the region. Better moisture and dynamics will
remain well to our north and west as surface high pressure 
moving from far eastern Canada into the maritimes will keep 
stable, southeasterly flow filtering into the region. Again, 
some rain could develop with a handful of forecast scenarios 
depicting light rain along the international border.

Thereafter, the large scale pattern amplifies. The NBM is only 
forecasting lower 60s, but 925mb temperatures ranging from 10-13
C suggest that some upper 60s could be in the cards. Overall, 
there's still spread in terms of the evolution of a compact 
upper low across the Plains, and how it interacts with a rich 
moisture plume off the Atlantic, but the timing is looking more 
consistent with an arrival of next Thursday night into Friday. 
This could be a very soaking rain. The NBM mean ranges from 
0.50-1.00", but the overall pattern suggests we could see more. 
Seeing long range guidance with 1" probabilities of 25-40% and 
2" probabilities of 5-15% certainly suggest some potential for a
little more. We'll have plenty of time to monitor the evolution
of this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Winds are gusty out of the northwest this
afternoon, continuing into the evening. EFK is currently MVFR
with a light shower and BKN020 ceilings. Have included PROB30
there and at SLK this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will begin to
subside mainly after 06z and skies will trend more clear.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 224 AM EDT Friday...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today. After a lull in 
winds this morning, northwesterly winds will increase throughout
the day, between the 15-25 KT range, with gusts closer to 30 
knots. Waves will generally build to 2-4 feet towards this 
evening. Winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight 
tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Kremer