Lutsen Mountains

000
FXUS63 KDLH 300627
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today, then scattered showers on Saturday with
  amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch.

- Warmer temperatures Sunday and into early next week.

- Widespread rain Monday and Tuesday with lingering rain
  possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A broad swath of mid and high level clouds is prevalent for much
of the Northland this morning, likely associated with warm air
advection and convergence aloft. These clouds will continue east
today and we'll see periods of clouds and sun today. With high
pressure passing through at the surface, winds will be very
light today and the weather will be quiet. Not much change for
tonight with below freezing temperatures expected for most
areas. 

Over the weekend, still expecting scattered showers, then the
big widespread rain Monday and Tuesday, possibly lingering
another day or two beyond that. PWATs are looking pretty
impressive around 1-1.5". Models are still not in perfect
agreement with how the merger of a clipper and Colorado low will
play out, and that will affect how/where rain bands set up.
However, with that impressive of PWATs, we could definitely end
up seeing widespread amounts around 1" and higher amounts around
2" or slightly higher. With the ongoing drought, these rainfall
amounts should be beneficial. The rain bands should be
progressive enough such that rate-driven flooding shouldn't be a
problem either. See the previous discussion for more
information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY:

Cool advection and cloud cover have kept temperatures on the 
chilly side today, with low 50s only across portions of 
northwest WI that cleared out earlier this morning. Breezy 
northwest winds will diminish this evening, as high pressure 
slides into the region from the west. Expect cloud cover to 
continue eroding through the afternoon and evening as drier air 
arrives. With winds becoming light, temperatures will fall into 
the 20s overnight. Would not be surprised to see a few places in
the upper teens in north central MN. 

Cool to neutral cold advection in low levels will continue 
through part of the day Friday, while low level winds remain
under the influence of the surface high. This will keep
temperatures on the cool side, with highs in the mid 40s to mid
50s.

WEEKEND: 

Warm advection develops Friday night as winds turn to the south
and high pressure slides to the east. A warm front will lift
northward, bringing scattered showers to the Northland
Saturday. Although, coverage could be as much as 40-50 percent
around mid day, little to no accumulation is expected. There
could still be lingering showers around Saturday evening.
Highs Saturday will be in the 50s, with temperatures falling 
into the 40s after sunset. 

With continued southerly flow, temperatures continue to warm 
Sunday, with highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Afternoon 
highs will be in the 60s for most of the area, with mid to upper
50s along the Shores of Lake Superior. Overnight lows remain 
well above freezing.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

By Monday and Tuesday, the chance for widespread precipitation 
returns as a larger and better organized storm system moves 
into the central CONUS. Model guidance is in better agreement
with a surface low developing lee of the Rockies Monday and
moving toward the Upper Midwest as a longwave trough moves
through the Central CONUS. This will bring rainfall back to the
Northland Monday. A second system, a clipper moving
southeastward through central Canada, will arrive Tuesday,
maintaining rain chances for the area. How these two systems
interact and how quickly they move to the east will dictate how
long rain chances hang around the Northland. Right now, it looks
like we could be in a wetter pattern through at least 
Wednesday. This will bring widespread beneficial rainfall to the
area, with temperatures remaining warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A broad shield of clouds will persist through tonight, but
ceilings are expected to remain VFR. High pressure passing
through will keep winds light and variable with skies clearing
more today. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

No marine concerns through the weekend with high pressure
passing through today, keeping winds light. Some blustery
northeast winds are possible Monday as a storm brings widespread
rain through midweek. Conditions will likely become hazardous
for small craft late Monday into Tuesday. 

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dry weather today with min RH falling into the 35 to 45 percent
range for much of northwest Wisconsin and a little higher in
northeast Minnesota. Winds will be light today with high
pressure passing through. A few showers move in Saturday and
Sunday. Accumulations less than a tenth of an inch. Widespread
rain Monday through midweek with totals likely around and higher
than an inch for most places. Fire weather conditions will be
minimal for the next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS