Lutsen Mountains

000
FXUS63 KDLH 151806
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
106 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions today with gale force wind gusts
  and high waves across western Lake Superior. Wind and waves
  diminish this afternoon and tonight.

- Additional rain chances late Wednesday/Wednesday night and
  again Friday into early Saturday. The late week system could
  bring an inch or more of rainfall south of a line from near
  Brainerd to Moose Lake to Bayfield.

- Near-normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for
  the later half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Wednesday - Thursday:

A zonal flow pattern aloft sets up for Wednesday and Thursday. 
Wednesday will be dry to start, but there is potential for some 
light rain showers (10-40%) across far northern and southern 
portions of the Northland Wednesday evening into early Wednesday
night as the high pressure departs to the east. An additional 
surface high pressure center passing to our north Thursday 
should keep that day dry.

Temperatures moderate slightly for Wednesday and Thursday with 
high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s on 
Wednesday/Thursday, and some mid 70s in the Brainerd Lakes to 
northwest Wisconsin on Thursday. Relatively warmer lows in the 
40s to low 50s (warmest near Lake Superior) Wednesday and 
Thursday nights should keep any additional frost chances at bay.

Friday - This Weekend:

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to 
return to the Northland on Friday through early Saturday. Lee 
cyclogenesis develops a surface low in eastern Colorado on 
Thursday and ejects it through the Central Plains Thursday 
night/early Friday and into the Upper Mississippi River Valley 
late Friday into early Saturday. The exact track of the surface 
low and the northward extent of its attendant warm front and 
warm sector will dictate precipitation potential, amounts, and 
locations in the Northland for Friday through early Saturday. 
The ECMWF EFI QPF values with this system do show a swath of 
0.5-0.6 (out of a maximum of 1) into portions of inland 
northwest Wisconsin along with 90th-plus percentile PWATs 
relative to NAEFS CFSR climatology, suggesting potential for an 
unusually higher than normal precipitation signal from several 
EPS members for this time of year. All this is to say that if 
the surface warm front sets up in the ideal location just south 
of the area, a low-level jet riding over to the cool side of the
front could set up a band of heavier rainfall in southern 
portions of the Northland, particularly northwest Wisconsin. The
WPC Day 5 Slight Risk area also highlights this potential for 
heavy rainfall. Additionally, the 13Z 9/14 run of the NBM 
rainfall amount probabilities for 0.5" or greater are 50-75% 
south of US-2, highest in inland NW WI, but don't drop off much 
for 1" or greater with probabilities still 40-65% for the same 
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered to broken stratus associated with the upper low
continues to move across the area today, with a mix of MVFR and
VFR cigs. With afternoon heating, expect cloud cover to
gradually diminish with clearing skies though the afternoon. 

High pressure arrives tonight, providing clear skies and light 
winds. Fog may develop early Wednesday morning, with vis as low
as LIFR. The most likely locations for vis reductions are HIB, 
DLH and HYR. There is also a potential for frost, which could 
limit fog development. The better chances for frost will be INL 
and locations northwest of HIB. Fog will lift early, with winds
remaining light and variable through the end of the taf period. 

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface low pressure over southeast Manitoba will quickly move 
to near James Bay by this evening. Winds will veer westerly and 
perhaps northwesterly and are expected to strengthen through 
late morning into early afternoon. Gales of 35 to 45 kts begin 
to develop by 12Z (7 AM CDT) and will persist through early 
afternoon. Winds and waves will quickly diminish this afternoon 
into early evening. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings are
in effect for much of today. It is likely there will be a short
period of time late Tuesday afternoon into early evening when 
Small Craft Advisories will be needed after the Gale Warnings 
end. Winds and waves will become light Tuesday night and persist
at 15 knots or less for Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm 
system will move through the region Friday and Saturday which 
will bring another period of stronger winds and higher waves.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast. 
Widespread wetting rain occurred Monday. Minimum relative 
humidity values will generally stay above 45 percent the next 
few days. West winds are forecast today at 10-20 mph with gusts 
as high as 30 to 40 mph. Winds will diminish for the remainder 
of the week. There will be a few more chances of rain this week 
with the greatest potential during the Thursday night through 
Saturday morning period.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough 
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck