Lutsen Mountains

000
FXUS63 KDLH 011125
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures and mainly dry for the weekend.
 
- Isolated chance for showers Saturday afternoon along the North
  Shore. Afterwards the next chance for showers and storms is
  late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This weekend:

Surface low pressure is moving well off to the SE this morning as it 
exits IA. Over in our neck of the woods we have a trailing cold 
front sliding across the region. Behind this front we can see 
clearing skies and northerly winds starting to filter in from 
Canada. Through the day some diurnally driven cumulus will form with 
a larger cluster likely over the Arrowhead. Aided by some orographic 
lift and a shortwave moving aloft this could spawn some isolated 
showers in the afternoon.  This activity will quickly taper off 
after sunset. 

Temperatures for the weekend will be much milder with highs close to 
seasonal averages around upper 70s to low 80s. On shore flow during 
the overnight period will also help to dip overnight lows into the 
50s. 

Monday/Tuesday:

High pressure will be shunted off to the east as our next weather 
system begins its approach on Monday. Southerly flow out ahead of 
this system will lead to warming temperatures with highs climbing 
into the 80s. Dew points will also climb back into the mid and upper 
60s across out west. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance 
highlights a deep upper level low over central Canada with a strong 
upper level jet cruising from the Northern Rockies into this system. 
Farther south, an additional low pressure may develop in lee of
the Rockies on Monday but our main focus will be on the cold 
front as it marches across the Northern Plains. Isentropic lift 
across the region ahead of the cold front could lead to some 
isolated showers and storms Monday afternoon, but the best 
forcing associated with the front arrives Monday evening. 
Convective initiation will likely be to our west so we will have
to monitor the line as it advances into our region. Instability
may be a bit limited based on how cloud cover and afternoon 
storms develop. Additionally, the better shear will be tied to 
along the front. For now, the severe risk looks marginal with 
most of the NWP hatching out a 15% chance of severe in our NW 
which aligns well with what SPC has outlined. 

The front will march through the region on Tuesday with rain and 
scattered thunderstorms expected. Convective parameter space at this 
time does not look favorable for severe weather on Tuesday. Rain 
chances taper off in the evening and with the passage of the front 
the region can expect temperatures to fall back into the 70s. 

Mid week:

High pressure over the region for Wednesday with temperatures 
staying in the 70s. Temperatures will slowly increase through 
the end of the work week with intermittent rain chances possible
as the upper level pattern turns more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Little bit of fog over in NW WI this morning will quickly burn off 
within the first hour or two of the forecast. Quiet weather today 
with some hazy skies aloft due to smoke. Diurnal cumulus is expected 
to develop in the afternoon with the highest concentration over the 
Arrowhead where a few isolated showers are possible. Light northerly 
winds will taper off this evening with a chance of fog developing 
tomorrow morning at BRD/HYR. 

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Gusty east to northeast winds are forecast to develop Saturday 
afternoon as a notable lake breeze moves onshore and well-
inland. A few gusts approach the 25 knots into the southwest arm
and near Saxon Harbor regions of western waters. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for these conditions as the waves also
forecast to build to 2 to 3 feet. A time period to watch will be
the Saturday early morning time period with a few high-res
guidance models progging this time period for a 1-2 hour wind
for gusty conditions too. The Small Craft Advisory timing may
well have to be adjusted if confidence increases on this
scenario actually occurring tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, expect east to northeast winds again Sunday which
will also have to be monitored for potential Advisory needs in
time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Low fire weather concerns for the weekend. Light northerly winds 
today with Min RHs dropping into the 40s. Areas that get abundant 
sunshine today could drop to around 35%. Isolated showers will be 
possible over the North Shore and the Arrowhead this afternoon. 
Winds will turn back out of the south. Favorable onshore flow from 
Lake Superior will be in play this afternoon and overnight. Next 
best chance for rain will be Monday evening through Tuesday as a 
cold front marches in from the west. 

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT 
     Sunday for LSZ144-145-148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...Britt