Mount Bohemia

000
FXUS63 KMQT 011149
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers linger today, mainly over the eastern two
  thirds of Upper Michigan.

- Temperatures fall back into the mid 60s to upper 70s for the
  weekend, coolest near Lake Superior. Lower dewpoints will
  result in a more comfortable airmass on Sunday and Monday.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns on Tuesday as
  a cold front approaches the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Early morning GOES WV imagery shows the mid level trough now over 
the Upper Mississippi River Valley with RAP analysis plotting the 
associated 1004 mb low now over northern IL. A cold front is 
pressing south over the CWA early this morning while the abundant 
moisture from yesterday begins to exit. With instability falling and 
deep moisture dissipating, shower activity is tapering down and 
thunder has ceased. That said, isolated to scattered showers closer 
to the low over the east half of the UP and northerly upslope 
drizzle are both possible today as a secondary cold front progresses 
south overhead. Low level moisture will remain high, possibly 
resulting in patchy fog, mainly over the east half this morning. 
Cooler temps today in the 60s and 70s, coldest near eastern Lake 
Superior. As the UP dries out for tonight under weak high pressure 
ridging, colder temps are expected in the mid 40s to upper 50s, 
coldest interior west.

Notably drier air can be expected for Sunday into Monday with 
dewpoints in the 50s, resulting in more comfortable conditions. 
Temperatures will be in the mid 60s to 70s on Sunday and upper 70s 
to low 80s on Monday (close to seasonal averages).

On Tuesday humidity will begin increasing ahead of an approaching 
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front on 
Tuesday but the risk for organized convection remains uncertain at 
this point in time, with global models showing lower instability and 
shear. It will fall back into the 70s for Wednesday behind the front 
with a rebound again on Thursday along with a slight chance for 
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The 12Z TAF period will have BR/FG as well as low cig impacts to 
some degree at all sites, but winds and precip will not be a major 
concern. MIFG at IWD should quickly clear out, leaving VFR through 
most of the period until additional radiational BR/FG develops early 
Sunday morning. CMX is currently socked in at minimums from marine 
FG aided by northerly upslope flow. Model guidance is not handling 
this well, but generally points to improvement to VFR by or shortly 
after 15Z; amendments may be needed as BKN mid level clouds clear 
out giving a better view at the marine low cigs/FG. SAW begins in 
VFR, but sees BKN MVFR cigs return by late morning as the marine 
cloud deck moves inland. Periods of IFR/LIFR are expected this 
afternoon and early evening. Similar to CMX, confidence in timing is 
low, so opted to use a TEMPO group for now. SAW improves to VFR by 
tonight as FG clears and low cigs SCT out, but additional BR/FG 
development tonight can't be ruled out. Otherwise north to northeast 
winds increase to around 10 kts at all sites by this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The lake remains under a weak pressure gradient through the 
forecast, resulting in mainly light winds at or below 20 kts. Areas 
of dense fog will impact central and eastern Lake Superior this
morning, pressing south and clearing from the west half and the
far eastern corner by this afternoon. Fog may linger into the 
late afternoon over the south-central waters. Hoisted Dense Fog 
Advisories to reflect impacts today. Showers and thunderstorm 
are expected again on Tuesday but there remains uncertainty as 
to the the coverage and strength of the storms.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ242>244-
     264.

  Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LSZ245.

  Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     LSZ248>250.

  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ251-
     267.

  Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ265-
     266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77/NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77