Mount Bohemia

000
FXUS63 KMQT 301807
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
207 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather continues through the weekend. Highs in the
  50s today and Saturday, warming into the low 60s on Sunday 
  and Monday (15-20F above average). 

- Precipitation chances increase early next week. Confidence is
  increasing for widespread rainfall Monday night into Tuesday,
  with a 60-75% chance for 0.5" or more of rainfall in a 24 
  hour period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

This afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and GFS model height 
analysis showed ridging developing over the Plains ahead of a trough 
that was along the West Coast and closed upper level low offshore 
from the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a ridge of high pressure 
extended from Wisconsin and Michigan, northwest to northern 
Minnesota. With the flow becoming anticyclonic lake effect rain 
showers had largely diminished though a few sprinkles were still 
over the far eastern U.P. Surface observations showed seasonable 
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s along with northwest winds around 
10 mph. It was a bit breezier over the Keweenaw and Lake Superior 
shoreline where gusts to 20 mph were occurring. 

Tonight high pressure will strengthen overhead and the pressure 
gradient will weaken. This, coupled with boundary layer decoupling 
should bring a cool night to much of the U.P. with lows falling into 
the 20s to low 30s. Even areas near the shorelines will be colder as 
a land breeze helps limit the influence of the warmer waters. 

Upper level ridging will build over the Upper Great Lakes for the 
weekend with a warming trend expected along with a push of Gulf 
moisture. As the warmer, more moist air pushes into the area 
isentropic lift will bring increasing cloud cover Saturday afternoon 
along with a period of scattered showers Saturday evening and 
overnight. Low clouds and perhaps some advection fog could linger 
into Sunday morning, potentially into the early afternoon. It won't 
feel very much like November on Sunday into early next week. 
Overnight temperatures Saturday and Sunday night will be well above 
average with lows in the mid 40s (close to the average high 
temperature for the start of November). Highs will be in the 50s to 
low 60s.

Monday into Wednesday the West Coast trough opens up and moves east 
with a surface low developing in the lee of the Central Rockies, 
then tracking northeast to the Plains, and eventually into Ontario 
Tuesday night. This track would bring a warm front north through the 
area Monday night with warm air advection resulting in a period of 
widespread rainfall. Additional shower chances will continue into 
Tuesday night as the area remains in the warm sector. Shower chances 
will diminish on Wednesday as the cold front moves through bringing 
cooler, drier air back into the U.P. Probabilities have increased 
for 1"+ rainfall (in 24 hours) to the 25-50% range, highest near the 
MI/WI border. For 0.5" or more probabilities are closer to 60-75%. 
Thus it is looking likely to see a beneficial rainfall event over 
the area. Along with the rainfall temperatures remain unseasonably 
warm through Tuesday with highs in the low 60s (15-20F above average 
for early November). It does cool off behind the front with highs in 
the 50s Wednesday and Thursday, though this is still 5-10F above 
average. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Lingering lake effect clouds at CMX should be cleared out by the 
start of the 18Z TAF period, leaving VFR at all sites through most 
of Saturday with high pressure overhead. Winds become variable to 
calm this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Lake Superior: High pressure will settle over the lake tonight with 
winds falling below 20 kts through the weekend. The lake will remain 
under the influence of a high pressure ridge through Monday 
resulting in southerly winds less than 20 kts. Increasing low level 
moisture and scattered showers Saturday night could result in areas 
of fog through Sunday morning (40% chance). Southerly winds increase 
on Tuesday to 30 kts along and east of the Keweenaw as low pressure 
lifts from the Plains to Ontario. Rain will also become widespread 
Monday night into Tuesday night. Warm moist air and rainfall could 
bring another round of marine fog for Monday night. Winds turn west 
behind a cold front on Wednesday with gusts to 25 kts over the 
eastern half of the lake through Thursday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of 
15 kts or less continue through early next week as high pressure 
ridging continues to build in over the region. It won't be until a 
vertically-stacked low lifts from the Plains to Ontario Monday night 
and Tuesday that winds increase to 20 to 30 kts from the southeast 
and south. Behind the low, expect south to southwest winds of 15 to 
20 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...NL