Silverton Mountain

000
FXUS65 KPUB 151810
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1210 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures this afternoon with thunderstorms  
  confined mainly to the higher terrain.

- Multiple waves Wednesday through Friday will combine with
  abundant moisture to produce thunderstorms with heavy rain,
  especially for the southern Mountains.

- Some uncertainty for the weekend into early next week with the
  pattern evolution.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Currently...satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover
across southern Colorado early this morning in persistent
southwest flow. Radar shows light rain showers across the
Continental Divide which will continue through much of the early
morning hours. Temperatures are currently in the 60s across the
Plains. A cold front is forecast to drop south across the Plains
early this morning, with gusty north winds 20 to 30 mph forecast
through daybreak. This will bring cooler temperatures by
morning with most areas on the Plains in the 50s to low 60s.
There could be some patchy fog across the San Luis Valley
through morning.

Today and tonight...the cold front will travel south across the
Plains this morning with northerly flow shifting southeast by
this afternoon. Moisture will slowly increase with dewpoints in
the 50s expected by this evening. Temperatures will be cooler,
with mainly 70s across the Plains and San Luis Valley.
Instability looks to be limited today, with less than 500 j/kg
across the higher terrain. Expect showers and thunderstorms to
remain confined to the Continental Divide, with more isolated to
scattered activity by late afternoon to early evening over the
Eastern Mountains. Lack of instability on the Plains should help
limit shower and thunderstorm activity, keeping areas east of
I-25 dry. Lightning, brief heavy rainfall and wind gusts near 40
mph may accompany any stronger storms over the higher terrain.
Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 50s across the Plains
and 40s for the San Luis Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Models in good agreement through Friday, with differences
showing up for the weekend into early next week. Active weather
is expected for mid to late week, with uncertainty heading into
the weekend and early next week.

Wednesday through Friday...an upper low will slowly shift east
out of the Pacific Northwest, while upper high pressure sits
across the southeast states. This will put southern Colorado
under south to southwesterly flow, with multiple upper wave
moving north across the state. PWAT values increase
significantly to in excess of 1 inch, while dewpoints remain
elevated in the 50s and lower 60s across the region. All point
to efficient rain producing thunderstorms across the higher
terrain. The main vort max train runs from Arizona, northeast
into northeast Colorado, with areas over the higher terrain,
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa favored. Issued a Flash Flood Watch
for the eastern San Juan Mountains and upper Rio Grande Valley
for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. The first
upper wave will lift north Wednesday afternoon and evening, with
periods of heavy rain expected across the Colorado Mountains. A
brief lull is expected Thursday morning, before another upper
wave lifts into the southwest portion of the state Thursday
afternoon. This will lead to another round of heavy rain
producing thunderstorms. Further east, showers and thunderstorms
are expected, both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and
evenings, favoring the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa. Models
differ on how far east to track thunderstorms, but they could
shift off the higher terrain and impact portions of the Plains
through the overnight hours. Flash flooding may be possible on
area burn scars and a watch may be needed.  

The upper low tracks eastward into the Northern Rockies on
Friday shifting the main vort max feed east into eastern
Colorado. This will likely be the best chances for areas on the
Plains to see shower and thunderstorm activity. Mountain areas
will continue to see periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, with a
continued flash flood risk.  

Temperatures look to remain cooler, with 70s and 80s each
afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows will fall
into the 50s and 60s across the Plains.

Saturday through Tuesday...there is a high degree of spread
among the deterministic guidance and ensembles heading into the
weekend and early next week. The GFS remains activity with a
quick moving upper ridge over the weekend, followed by another
upper wave tracking across Colorado early next week. The GFS
would dry southern Colorado out over the weekend, with a return
to wet conditions early next week. The ECMWF and Canadian are
similar to the GFS with an upper ridge for the weekend, but
differ by early next week, with a broad trough out west and
southwesterly flow across Colorado. Overall, drier and warmer
weather is forecast for the weekend, with active weather heading
into early next week with the GFS the wettest guidance compared
to the ECMWF and Canadian.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Fore KPUB and KCOS, area of low VFR/MVFR stratus covers much of
the sern plains late this morning, as cold front has switched 
winds to the e-ne along and east of the mountains, pushing 
stratus westward toward the high terrain. Expect wrn edge of 
clouds to begin to erode this afternoon with deeper mixing, 
though forecast shift to more sely surface winds suggests that 
this may be a slow process. Will keep lower clouds in KPUB until
mid-afternoon, while keeping them out of KCOS, though it will 
be a close call here as cloud deck isn't too far away (MVFR cigs
in KLIC as of 1730z). Risk of clouds returning overnight at both
terminals as surface winds stay sely, though outflows from
nearby mtn convection may disrupt the flow enough to keep lower
cigs east of both terminals. Will just go with few-sct020 for 
now and monitor for inclusion in later tafs. 

At KALS, prob30 for -tsra late this afternoon and into the
evening, with gusty winds to 35 kts the main storm threat.
convection fades by late evening, though mid-level cloud deck
will remain in place for much of the night into Wed morning. 

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening 
for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN