Snowshoe Mountain

000
FXUS61 KRLX 151017
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z aviation discussion issued.

As of 343 AM Tuesday...

Have cooled temperatures this morning across much of the area.
In addition, have increased river valley fog coverage both this
morning and Wednesday morning. Finally, shower and storm chances
have increased slightly on Thursday and Friday across portions 
of the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry weather through Wednesday courtesy of lingering
high pressure, but amid building heat and humidity. Heat 
indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s to 100 on Wednesday 
and Thursday across portions of the lowlands.

2) Turning active once more beginning early Thursday onward with
the arrival of a cold front. The front is progged to become 
quasi-stationary in the vicinity of the forecast area late in 
the week into the weekend, serving up daily chances of showers 
and storms. At least some strong storm and heavy rainfall 
potential will exist at times Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A quiet morning across the area courtesy of broad high pressure
across the northeast CONUS, which is currently centered in upstate
New York. This has resulted in a clear and cool overnight via 
efficient radiational cooling. A large air / river water 
temperature spread this morning and associated moisture flux has
quickly helped to facilitate widespread river valley fog 
southeast of the Ohio River. Fog will be dense in some
locations, and will continue to monitor the need for a SPS for 
the morning commute. Lows this morning will be seasonably cool, 
with 50s across the lowlands, while 40s in the mountains. The 
typical lowland valley cold spots could dip into the upper 40s, 
with upper 30s not out of the question in the coldest of the 
northern mountain valleys.

Once fog dissipates shortly after sunrise, a partly cloudy and
dry day is ahead with just a bit of fair weather Cu here and 
there. The main story of the day will be significantly warmer
temperatures courtesy of return downsloping flow as high 
pressure continues to shift northeast of the CWA. Highs today
will be ~ 10-12 degrees warmer than that of yesterday,
translating to mid 80s to low 90s across the lowlands amid a
noted increase in humidity. Lows tonight will be ~ 10 degrees 
warmer than this morning, with another round of river valley fog
expected. 

Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week,
with highs progged in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of
the lowlands. Southwest to west low-level flow will usher in an
increasingly humid Gulf airmass into the area around the
periphery of an upper ridge centered near the Tennessee Valley.
The combination of heat and humidity will result in heat 
indices Wednesday/Thursday afternoons reaching the mid 90s to 
100 across the lowlands. While much of the area remains dry on 
Wednesday, some modest diurnal buoyancy could result in isolated
shower/storm chances, primarily across our northern zones with 
the approach of a cold front, although differential heating / 
orographic effects could result in an isolated shower/storm 
further south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to become quasi-
stationary (east-west) across the general Ohio Valley region 
Wednesday night into the weekend, meandering north/south at
times. This will result in a return of an unsettled pattern 
with daily chances for showers/storms, generally favored in the 
afternoon/evening hours or when weak upper waves traverse 
overhead across the northern periphery of the upper ridge. 
Confidence in specific details continues to remain on the lower 
side at this time, with shower/storm chances being highly 
correlated to the position of the frontal boundary. 

Given recent rainfall, and the return of a very moist airmass 
with progged PWATs pushing 1.8-2.1" at times, the concern for 
flash flooding will return, especially given at least some 
potential for west-east training showers/storms along the front
given progged upper flow aligning with the surface front. WPC 
has introduced a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across 
western portions of the CWA for late Wednesday night, while 
much of the area for Thursday into Thursday night. At present, 
rain chances are highest Thursday and Friday, then lower on 
Saturday as the front slides south of the region. Higher chances
for showers/storms then return late Sunday and Monday. 

The threat for organized severe weather continues to be on the 
lower side given favorable kinematic fields generally being 
displaced too far to the north. This translates into weak shear 
and modest buoyancy amid rather saturated profiles, which could 
result in isolated (diurnally driven) stronger storms Thursday 
onward, primary concern being damaging winds via wet microbursts.

High temperatures Friday into the weekend will continue to be 
above normal, albeit slightly cooler than Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
River valley fog will continue to lift / dissipate through ~ 
1300Z. This gives way to continued dry weather and widespread 
VFR through the remainder of the day. A FEW/SCT (025-045) Cu 
field is expected late morning into the afternoon across 
portions of the area, especially in/near the higher terrain. 
Some river valley fog will once again develop tonight.
Restrictions will be most likely at CRW and EKN, but could also
potentially occur at CKB/HTS/PKB.

Light and generally SSW to SE flow is expected today. Calm or
very light S/SE flow is expected tonight. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, otherwise high.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR w/ stratocu could occur at BKW 
late this morning into the early afternoon. Fog coverage, timing, 
and associated restrictions tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 09/15/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Patchy IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog each
morning throughout the work week, most likely in the valleys in
and near the higher terrain. Brief IFR conditions are possible
at times late Wednesday night onward within showers/storms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW