Stowe

000
FXUS61 KBTV 302318
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
718 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 PM EDT Friday...

1. Very quiet weather expected this weekend with near 
critically low humidities on Saturday, but winds will be 5 to 15 
mph, mitigating fire weather concerns. 

2. Next chance for precipitation will come late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates strong 
subsidence/dry air aloft, but plenty of moisture trapped below 
inversion is resulting in plenty of stratus clouds, especially in 
favorable upslope areas. Secondary cold frnt and associated s/w 
energy is approaching the Ottawa Valley this aftn, with additional 
spotty showers. Based on crnt radar imagery and favorable upslope 
flow under modest llvl caa have continued with chc pops acrs the 
northern Dacks and central/northern Greens thru 06z this evening. 
Sounding data indicates the depth of moisture is only thru 850mb, so 
areal coverage and intensity of precip wl be light and mostly 
confined to the trrn. Our CWA conts under caa tonight, with 
Whiteface Summit already down to 28F with windchill of 14F, so 
expecting coolest values acrs the mid-upper elevations with warmest 
readings in the valleys. Lows generally mid 20s to mid/upper 30s 
overnight.

On Saturday a 1033mb high pres builds toward Binghamton, NY with 
cool northerly flow prevailing. Soundings show any lingering 
moisture should dissipate, with just a few fair wx cumulus clouds 
expected over the trrn. Progged 850mb temps range btwn -3C and -6C, 
which support highs from the mid/upper 20s summits to upper 40s 
warmer valleys. SOundings indicate mixed layer winds of 10 to 15 
knots, which wl result in sfc winds of 5 to 15 mph acrs most area. 
These winds wl help mix slightly drier toward the sfc with min rh 
values in the 30 to 45% range. Lowest rhs wl be in the lower CT 
River Valley and near BTV,  with highest over the summits. 

Saturday night lows are tricky based on potential llvl moisture 
trapped below strengthening subsidence inversion per latest NAM12 
and NAM3KM sounding data. Meanwhile, the latest RRFS profiles 
indicate the potential for fog at SLK and other climo favored areas, 
but feel reaching below cross over values maybe challenging. For now 
have kept lows near NBM values, given the cloud potential and 
lingering bl winds of 4 to 8 knots. Lows generally mid 20s to mid 
30s. 

Sunday and Monday are quiet with sfc high pres shifting off the Mid 
Atlantic coast and developing llvl waa. This wl produce another 
window of above normal temps for early next week with highs well 
into the 50s on Sunday and upper 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The dry 
conditions prevail, except a few sprinkles are possible Monday 
morning associated with warm front over northern NY. Moisture and 
dynamics are limited, so potential is small attm.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Still some model disagreement with how our next weather 
maker will play out, but at this time next rainfall to reach our 
region will arrive later next week. GFS indicates a low pressure 
system that passes much too far north of our region to be too 
impactful, and a weak front crosses the area Wednesday night into 
Thursday. ECMWF shows a low pressure system passing much closer to 
our area which has potential for some better moisture and also 
precipitation chances, and has a bit of a slower solution with bulk 
of precipitation arriving on Friday. A lot of uncertainty exists 
this far out, but details will become more clear as we approach the 
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR expected at all terminals through the
next 24 hours. SCT/BKN VFR cigs generally in the 040-060 AGL
range to gradually scour out overnight leading to mainly SKC/SCT
conditions from sunrise Saturday onward as high pressure builds
into the region. Higher summits, esp. in the Adirondacks 
occasionally obscured through 06-10Z. Winds mainly northwesterly
6-12 knots, occasionally gusty early, trending light and less 
than 8 knots later tonight into Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 248 PM EDT Friday...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues tonight for breezy northwest
winds 15 to 30 knots. Winds are currently 15 to 25 knots on the
lake with a few localized gusts up to 30 knots, which will
continue until 06z, before slowly weakening toward sunrise. Wave
will be 1 to 3 feet but a few higher swells up to 4 feet are
possible. Much lighter winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Taber
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Taber