Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 011137 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Storms will increase in coverage today and be capable of
  producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, locally heavy 
  rainfall and isolated flash flooding, mainly across central NM. 

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of
  far western New Mexico today, then gradually expand back into 
  central and eastern NM through at least Tuesday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The backdoor front is currently racing west near the Continental
Divide and has resulted in a strong east canyon/gap wind into the
RGV. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 3 AM MDT for the middle 
RGV and the highest gust so far at the Albuquerque Sunport has 
been 53mph. Low level moisture transport behind the backdoor front
will set the stage for a more active day, with greater coverage of
convection across central NM. Increasing northerly flow aloft,
coupled with veering winds in the lower boundary layer will
increase 0-6km bulk shear to 35-40kts and be supportive of strong
to severe storms rolling south off of the mountains this 
afternoon/evening. The SPC has included a marginal risk for 
severe storms for portions of eastern and central NM today. A 
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the South Central Mountains, 
mainly due to an increased threat for burn scar flash flooding 
in/near Ruidoso due to both the potential for training storms and 
elevated rainfall rates expected. The watch is in effect from noon
until midnight due to the potential for multiple rounds of
convection lasting well past sunset. In addition, there is a 
moderate to major heat risk across far western NM and a Heat 
Advisory is in effect for the Northwest and West Central Plateaus.
The strong Monsoon high over AZ is forecast to weaken on Sunday, 
from 600dam to 596dam at 500mb as drier air aloft rotates around 
the circulation over NM and PWATs begin to decline. This will
bring a downtick in daytime heating initiated convection, with a 
continued moderate to major heat risk across far western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The Monsoon high will weaken further going into Monday down to 
near 594dam at 500mb, with the upper high centroid shifting east 
into west central NM. Drier conditions will allow daytime 
temperatures to rise a couple of degrees across central NM, 
expanding the moderate to major heat risk east into the ABQ 
Metro. PWATs will continue a slow downtrend Monday, leading to a
more paltry round of convection that will favor southern and
eastern areas and be capable of producing strong/erratic wind
gusts. More of the same on Tuesday followed by a slow uptrend in
PWATs through the end of the week, bringing improved chances for
storms as the Monsoon high drifts toward the Four Corners.
However, there is some model spread with regard the the strength
and position of the Monsoon high by the end of the work week
leading lower forecast confidence beyond Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Sct/num storms are forecast across central NM this 
afternoon/evening and will impact the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace. 
Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible with today's round of 
storms. KROW may get thunderstorm impacts later this evening. 
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist.
Another gusty east canyon wind will develop at KABQ early this 
evening, but is not forecast to be long-lived. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the
next seven days. Strong high pressure aloft will bring continued 
hot temperatures to the lower elevations of western NM today, 
then expand back eastward across central NM going through early 
week. A backdoor front moved through central NM overnight and will
recharge moisture, bringing an uptick in wetting storms this 
afternoon and evening. Humidity recovery will improve and be good 
to excellent behind the backdoor front through tonight. Chances 
for wetting storms will decrease Sun/Mon, then slowly ramp back up
from mid through late week as high pressure aloft weakens some. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  70 100  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Dulce...........................  95  55  98  56 /  20   5   5   0 
Cuba............................  93  60  94  63 /  10   5   5   5 
Gallup..........................  98  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0 
El Morro........................  93  59  92  61 /  10   5  10   5 
Grants..........................  96  61  95  64 /   5  10  10   0 
Quemado.........................  92  63  92  64 /  10   5  10   0 
Magdalena.......................  90  64  90  67 /  20  10  20   5 
Datil...........................  88  60  88  61 /  20  20  30   5 
Reserve.........................  96  60  94  62 /  30  10  20   5 
Glenwood........................  99  64  98  66 /  40  10  30  10 
Chama...........................  89  53  90  57 /  50  10  20   0 
Los Alamos......................  88  63  90  66 /  50   5  10   5 
Pecos...........................  86  56  90  60 /  70  10  20   5 
Cerro/Questa....................  86  56  90  61 /  20  10   5   0 
Red River.......................  83  47  84  48 /  30   5  10   0 
Angel Fire......................  80  40  84  47 /  60   5  30   5 
Taos............................  88  54  92  60 /  20  10   5   0 
Mora............................  83  53  88  56 /  70  10  30   5 
Espanola........................  95  62  97  67 /  20   5   5   5 
Santa Fe........................  89  62  91  66 /  50   5  10   5 
Santa Fe Airport................  92  60  94  64 /  30   5   0   5 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  67  97  72 /  30   5  10   0 
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  66  99  72 /  30   5   0   0 
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  66 100  71 /  30   5   0   0 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  68  99  73 /  30   5   0   0 
Belen...........................  99  65  99  70 /  10  10   0   0 
Bernalillo......................  98  66 100  71 /  30   5   5   5 
Bosque Farms....................  98  64  99  70 /  30   5   0   0 
Corrales........................  99  67 100  73 /  30   5   5   0 
Los Lunas.......................  99  66  99  71 /  20  10   0   0 
Placitas........................  94  65  96  70 /  30   5   5   5 
Rio Rancho......................  98  67  99  72 /  30   5   5   0 
Socorro......................... 101  69 101  73 /  20  20   0   0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  59  91  65 /  40   5  20   0 
Tijeras.........................  92  61  94  67 /  40   5  20   0 
Edgewood........................  92  56  95  62 /  50  10  20   5 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  54  95  59 /  50  20  20   5 
Clines Corners..................  86  56  89  62 /  50  20  20  10 
Mountainair.....................  92  57  93  63 /  50  20  20   5 
Gran Quivira....................  90  58  89  63 /  60  30  20  10 
Carrizozo.......................  92  63  90  67 /  50  50  10   0 
Ruidoso.........................  84  57  84  61 /  70  70  20   5 
Capulin.........................  82  54  87  60 /  50  10   0   0 
Raton...........................  86  54  92  58 /  30   5   5   0 
Springer........................  87  55  94  58 /  40  10  10   0 
Las Vegas.......................  84  55  90  58 /  60  10  20  10 
Clayton.........................  89  62  93  67 /  30  10   0   5 
Roy.............................  85  58  90  63 /  60  20   0   0 
Conchas.........................  93  63  98  69 /  40  30   0   0 
Santa Rosa......................  89  61  94  66 /  40  20   0   0 
Tucumcari.......................  92  63  98  69 /  30  40   0   0 
Clovis..........................  91  64  95  68 /  30  40   0   0 
Portales........................  91  65  96  70 /  20  40   0   0 
Fort Sumner.....................  92  64  96  69 /  30  40   0   0 
Roswell.........................  97  68  98  71 /  20  60   0   0 
Picacho.........................  92  63  94  66 /  40  60   5   0 
Elk.............................  89  59  90  62 /  60  50  10   5 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for 
NMZ201-205.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11