Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 151805
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1205 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern
  and central New Mexico this week, increasing the chances for 
  showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally
  heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban 
  areas, burn scars, and low water crossings on Wednesday and 
  Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks,
  streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up 
  this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of 
  standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week 
  could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and 
  small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered showers continue tonight around the region, with a few 
embedded storms, associated with a disturbance that is currently 
located over the Southwest Mountains. This feature will be the focus 
of convection today as it lifts northward along the Continental 
Divide. This disturbance will bring even more moisture with it, 
surging PWATs to 200% of normal across the western third of the 
state, with PWATs 150-200% of normal in central NM. Widespread 
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers, increasing the 
threat of both flash flooding and wet microbursts. Flash flooding is 
a possibility almost anywhere around the region, but the risk will 
be highest over the Southwest Mountains today. Storm motions will be 
towards the north/northeast at 10 to 15 mph, but storms will attempt 
to propagate southward, keeping updrafts anchored over the same 
areas. This will likely lead to localized rainfall totals in the 1-
3" range. Much of this area received at least 0.5" of soaking 
rainfall overnight, with some areas getting as much as 2".

Hi-res models, including the RRFS, are picking up on a cluster of 
storms developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains early in the 
afternoon and moving into the northeast plains during the late 
afternoon and evening. This cluster should become outflow dominant, 
limiting the flash flood potential, but a potent outflow boundary 
could pack west wind gusts of 30 to 60 mph across Colfax, Harding, 
and Union Counties.

The extensive cloud coverage will keep temperatures down today, with 
highs actually slightly below average in the western half of the 
state. This will be a welcomed change from the record heat during 
the first couple weeks of the month.

The trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward Wednesday, 
keeping the plume of sub-tropical moisture focused over eastern AZ 
and western NM. Moisture transport will intensify under the 
influence of stronger southerly flow. This will have the impact of 
increasing storm coverage and storm speeds as well. The coverage of 
rainfall will likely peak on Wednesday and it could be the wettest 
day of the Monsoon Season in terms of coverage of wetting rainfall. 
The probability of 0.5" for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday 
night is at least 40% everywhere along and east of the central 
mountain chain, with a 90%+ chance over the high terrain of western 
and northern NM. That being said, the probability of 2"+ is quite 
low, with the Northwest Highlands the only area showing greater than 
a 20% chance. This does not mean that flash flooding is not a 
concern though because the training of storms will more than likely 
result in areas with 2"+. The flash flood risk Wednesday will be 
maximized along the Continental Divide where there will be up to 350 
units of IVT (Integrated Vapor Transport) moving south to north 
along the Divide. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Moisture transport will only ramp up Wednesday night into Thursday 
as a disturbance rotating around the west coast trough sweeps 
through the Four Corners region. At this point, soils across much of 
western and central NM will be saturated and it will take less 
rainfall than normal to produce flash flooding. Given the large 
scale forcing and moisture transport, showers and storms will 
continue into the overnight and even into the morning hours. This is 
expected to limit afternoon destabilization and therefore rainfall 
rates, but the overall coverage of showers and storms will remain 
high regardless of potential rates. Temperatures will remain 
seasonably cool, with even chilly temperatures in the mountains 
where temps will struggle to reach 70 in the afternoon and should 
drop into the 40s at night. 

The west coast trough funneling moisture into the desert southwest 
will begin to lift northwestward into the northern Rockies Friday, 
tilting the moisture plume to become more zonal and cutting off the 
subtropical tap. However, there will still be plenty of lingering 
moisture for showers and storms through Friday, with a more stark 
drier trend on Saturday. The downtick will be short-lived since the 
same trough exiting into the High Plains could send a backdoor front 
into eastern NM that replenishes moisture once again.

The subtropical jet stream is forecast to become more active next 
week, favoring the continuation of wet weather over the desert 
southwest. While technically still part of Monsoon Season, this 
transitional pattern is much more Fall-like in nature with more 
active westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Lingering showers are moving over central New Mexico with new 
thunderstorms starting to develop around this area. These storms 
will multiply over the high terrain of the Continental Divide 
through the early afternoon with additional cells developing along
and east of the central mountain chain through mid to late 
afternoon. Storms will commonly produce small hail, gusty 
downburst winds, lightning, and brief heavy downpours. Storms in 
northeastern areas of New Mexico will have a tendency to turn 
strong or severe with larger hail and damaging winds. Storms will 
fill in and move northeastward into nearby valleys and lower 
elevations through the early evening before turning more showery 
through midnight. Portions of western and central New Mexico could
observe periodic rain and showers through the overnight into 
early Wednesday morning. Pockets of lower, MVFR (less than 3,000 
ft) ceilings will be possible (20-40% chance) early Wednesday 
morning, mainly across west central and northeastern areas (KGUP, 
KRTN, KLVS, KCAO).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Numerous showers and storms are likely each day through Friday 
around central and northern New Mexico, with the most widespread 
activity generally focusing along the Continental Divide. Confidence 
is high for widespread wetting rainfall and many locations, even 
lower elevations, will likely have multi-day rainfall totals 
exceeding one inch. Showers and storms will generally move from 
south to north each day, with storm motions becoming faster late 
week as the region comes under the influence of a trough over the 
west coast.

Rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and evening each 
day, but at least scattered convection is forecast to continue 
during the overnight and morning hours each day, particularly 
Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorms may produce gusty and erratic 
outflow winds, with gusty south winds favored given the storm 
motions. Excellent humidity recoveries are expected each of the next 
several mornings areawide and some locations may even have patchy 
morning fog later in the week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  59  74  56 /  20  60  80  90 
Dulce...........................  78  49  70  48 /  30  70  90  90 
Cuba............................  74  53  70  51 /  40  60  70  90 
Gallup..........................  77  52  70  51 /  40  40  90  90 
El Morro........................  73  50  71  49 /  50  50  80  90 
Grants..........................  74  53  72  52 /  60  60  90  90 
Quemado.........................  75  54  73  53 /  70  60  80  90 
Magdalena.......................  75  57  75  57 /  70  60  60  80 
Datil...........................  73  54  72  53 /  70  60  80  90 
Reserve.........................  79  55  73  55 /  60  50  80  90 
Glenwood........................  82  60  79  58 /  50  60  70  90 
Chama...........................  72  48  66  49 /  40  70  80  90 
Los Alamos......................  74  57  73  56 /  60  70  80  90 
Pecos...........................  75  53  75  53 /  70  70  90  90 
Cerro/Questa....................  73  51  72  52 /  50  70  80  80 
Red River.......................  66  44  66  44 /  60  70  80  80 
Angel Fire......................  69  41  70  42 /  80  70  80  80 
Taos............................  76  51  75  51 /  50  70  80  80 
Mora............................  72  51  72  52 /  80  80  80  90 
Espanola........................  79  56  78  55 /  60  70  80  80 
Santa Fe........................  76  57  75  56 /  60  70  90  80 
Santa Fe Airport................  77  56  78  55 /  50  60  80  80 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  60  79  60 /  40  60  80  80 
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  62  81  61 /  30  60  70  80 
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  56  83  56 /  30  50  70  80 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  62  80  61 /  30  60  70  80 
Belen...........................  83  60  84  59 /  30  50  60  70 
Bernalillo......................  80  60  80  59 /  30  60  80  80 
Bosque Farms....................  81  57  83  56 /  30  50  60  70 
Corrales........................  80  60  81  59 /  30  60  70  80 
Los Lunas.......................  82  59  83  59 /  30  50  60  70 
Placitas........................  77  59  79  59 /  40  70  80  80 
Rio Rancho......................  79  61  79  60 /  30  60  70  80 
Socorro.........................  83  62  84  62 /  40  50  60  80 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  55  75  55 /  50  60  90  80 
Tijeras.........................  75  57  77  57 /  50  60  80  80 
Edgewood........................  75  54  76  54 /  60  60  90  80 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  52  79  52 /  60  60  90  80 
Clines Corners..................  76  53  77  53 /  60  60  90  70 
Mountainair.....................  77  55  77  55 /  50  60  70  60 
Gran Quivira....................  79  56  79  55 /  40  50  70  60 
Carrizozo.......................  83  60  79  60 /  40  50  70  50 
Ruidoso.........................  77  54  74  53 /  60  50  80  50 
Capulin.........................  70  52  77  54 /  20  80  40  50 
Raton...........................  77  52  80  54 /  50  80  60  70 
Springer........................  81  54  82  55 /  60  80  60  70 
Las Vegas.......................  76  53  76  54 /  70  70  80  80 
Clayton.........................  77  58  85  62 /  20  60  20  20 
Roy.............................  79  56  80  58 /  50  80  40  60 
Conchas.........................  89  62  88  63 /  50  80  40  50 
Santa Rosa......................  86  60  86  62 /  50  60  50  50 
Tucumcari.......................  91  62  90  63 /  40  80  30  30 
Clovis..........................  90  63  90  63 /  30  70  10  10 
Portales........................  91  64  91  64 /  40  70  10  10 
Fort Sumner.....................  90  63  90  64 /  40  70  30  30 
Roswell.........................  95  66  93  66 /  40  60  20  30 
Picacho.........................  86  60  84  60 /  80  60  70  30 
Elk.............................  83  58  79  57 /  60  50  70  40 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday 
night for NMZ205>209-226-241.

Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ208-209-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52