Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 301735 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Showers and patchy fog will persist across eastern NM through 
  this morning. Rain may cause slightly elevated flows in arroyos 
  and rivers.

- Widespread light rain will spread across western and central NM
  tonight through Saturday morning. 

- Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western
  New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for
  localized flooding from persistent rainfall. Though rivers 
  rises are expected, there remains a low chance for additional 
  river flooding. 

- Severe thunderstorms will bring a threat for hail, damaging
  winds and tornadoes across central and eastern NM Sunday night. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Moisture advection, some associated with the remnants from TS 
Vance, continues across southeast NM this morning. Light to 
moderate rain is expected to continue across eastern NM through 
mid day as a weak shortwave continues to pass overhead. As that 
precipitation begins to wane, isolated showers and thunderstorms 
should develop over the high terrain. Though localized moderate to
heavy precipitation can't be ruled out, these storms should 
largely be uneventful with mainly light rainfall as the next round
of upper level forcing will not come until tonight. 

Round 2 of precipitation should start this evening across western
NM as another short wave shifts over the area. Precipitation will
shift eastward overnight, reaching the Central Mtn Chain by 
sunrise Saturday. Most precipitation should wane by midday before 
reaching eastern NM thanks to downslope flow. Rainfall amounts 
should generally be less than 0.50 inches, though can't rule out a
few areas getting closer to 1 inch. Overall, impacts are not 
expected from this rainfall. After the rainfall ends, a relatively
quiet Saturday afternoon with near normal high temperatures is on
tap.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

After a quiet Saturday night, the next period of impactful 
weather will arrive Sunday into Monday. An upper low over the 
Pacific will attempt to phase with a northern stream low diving 
into the Great Basin on Sunday. Subtropical moisture will advect 
into NM ahead of the Pacific low and the approaching systems will 
provide plenty of ascent for widespread rainfall. PWATs will climb
to near 1 inch, which is 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal 
for early Nov. At this time, it continue to look too stable for 
thunderstorms given moist adiabatic moisture profiles, so this 
should initially be a persistent soaking rainfall. Unfortunately, 
given the very saturated soils across much of western NM, 
increased runoff is likely. Between one half inch and two inches 
of rainfall are most likely across western NM, but localized 
areas could see upwards of 3 inches from persistent rainfall, 
especially in favored upslope flow locations like the Tusas 
Mountains. Even persistent light to moderate rainfall could cause 
flooding problems given the saturated soils. At this time, we are 
expecting rivers to rise, including across San Juan County, but 
river levels are expected to stay below flood stage. If any 
upstream areas receives these higher end rainfall amounts, that 
could push rivers close to or just above minor flood stage. A 
Flood Watch has been issued for areas near and west of the ContDvd
starting 5am Sunday and continuing through 11am Monday.

It should be noted that locations across central and eastern NM
will receive rainfall as well, however, the main concern shifts 
to severe weather as opposed to flooding. The NAM and RRFS are 
suggesting MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear 
values of 40-50kt. Severe storms will be capable of all hazards 
as they quickly shift eastward along the initial Pacific front.

The subtropical moisture should shift out of the area late Sunday
night or early Monday morning, but moisture that was associated
with the northern stream low will shift into northwest NM. The low
itself shifts over north central NM Monday morning, and an 
associated stronger cold front will push through northwest NM. As 
the upper low continues to slide east-southeastward Monday, the 
front will continue to slide southeastward through the remainder 
of the area, with a backdoor front entering northeast NM Monday 
afternoon. With this cold air advection, snow levels will fall 
from 11-12kft to 8-9kft. More precipitation is expected along each
frontal boundary, but snow will be the most likely precip type 
above 9kft in the northern mountains. Before precipitation wanes 
late Monday, 1-4 inches of the white stuff is expected. 

In addition to the rain, potential flooding, severe wx and snow, 
winds will also become a concern Sunday and moreso Monday. On 
Sunday, southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will 
be favored ahead of the initial Pacific cold front as a lee side 
surface low deepens. On Monday, along and behind the secondary, 
stronger front, west to northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to
35 mph will be common, but winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50
mph will be possible from near KLVS and KCQC southward to the
South Central Mtns. 

Ridging moves over the Desert Southwest Tue/Wed with quiet
conditions expected. The upper level ridge slides east on Thursday
as an upper low tracks northeastward across the Great Basin, but
quiet conditions should persist across NM. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

IFR conditions at KROW will improve to MVFR this afternoon and 
then deteriorate overnight back down to IFR. At the remaining TAF 
sites, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through 
the afternoon hours, although short-lived MVFR conditions are 
likely with scattered showers and isolated storms late afternoon 
into the evening hours. Deterioration is forecast across western 
and central NM overnight, down to MVFR in rain with potential for
IFR conditions at both KFMN and KGUP. Mountain obscurations will 
become widespread overnight. Winds will generally be light. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7
days. Several rounds of precipitation are expected through 
Monday, with wetting rainfall likely, and light snow accumulations
across the northern mountains. Southwest winds will increase on 
Sunday ahead of an initial cold front with gusts up to 35 mph 
likely. Then a stronger cold front will slide from northwest to 
southeast on Monday, bringing west to northwest wind gusts up to 
35 mph across much of the area, except gusts up to 50 mph from 
KLVS to KCQC southward across the highlands. Quieter conditions 
are expected Tuesday through Thursday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  47  62  47 /   5  80  20  40 
Dulce...........................  65  42  57  38 /   5  80  60  20 
Cuba............................  63  43  57  42 /   5  90  30  30 
Gallup..........................  66  43  61  43 /  30  80  10  80 
El Morro........................  63  41  59  42 /  30  70  10  70 
Grants..........................  64  43  62  45 /  20  70  10  50 
Quemado.........................  65  42  62  45 /  10  70  10  40 
Magdalena.......................  63  46  63  48 /  20  70  20  20 
Datil...........................  61  42  60  44 /  20  70  20  30 
Reserve.........................  68  45  64  47 /  20  80  20  60 
Glenwood........................  72  49  68  52 /  30  80  20  50 
Chama...........................  60  39  52  36 /  10  80  70  20 
Los Alamos......................  60  44  58  44 /  10  80  30  20 
Pecos...........................  61  43  59  41 /  30  60  40  10 
Cerro/Questa....................  60  41  55  39 /  10  50  50  10 
Red River.......................  53  35  48  32 /  30  40  50  10 
Angel Fire......................  58  34  52  28 /  30  40  40  10 
Taos............................  63  42  58  36 /  10  50  40  10 
Mora............................  59  40  58  38 /  30  40  20  10 
Espanola........................  68  47  64  43 /  10  60  30  10 
Santa Fe........................  62  45  59  44 /  20  70  40  10 
Santa Fe Airport................  65  46  62  44 /  10  70  40  10 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  51  65  51 /  10  80  30  10 
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  50  66  51 /   5  70  30  10 
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  51  68  51 /   0  70  30  20 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  51  66  51 /   0  70  30  20 
Belen...........................  71  51  69  51 /   5  70  30  20 
Bernalillo......................  71  51  67  49 /   5  80  20  10 
Bosque Farms....................  71  51  68  50 /   5  70  30  20 
Corrales........................  71  51  67  50 /   5  70  30  20 
Los Lunas.......................  71  51  68  51 /   5  70  30  20 
Placitas........................  67  49  64  49 /  10  80  30  10 
Rio Rancho......................  70  51  66  50 /   5  70  20  20 
Socorro.........................  72  52  70  53 /   5  60  30  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  45  59  45 /  10  80  30  10 
Tijeras.........................  64  47  61  47 /  10  80  30  10 
Edgewood........................  64  45  62  43 /  10  70  30  10 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  65  45  64  42 /  10  70  30  10 
Clines Corners..................  59  45  60  44 /  20  60  30  10 
Mountainair.....................  64  46  62  46 /  10  70  40  10 
Gran Quivira....................  62  47  62  47 /  10  70  40  10 
Carrizozo.......................  65  51  64  50 /  20  60  30  10 
Ruidoso.........................  59  46  59  46 /  40  60  30  10 
Capulin.........................  57  42  61  41 /  10  10  10   5 
Raton...........................  61  44  65  39 /  10  10  10   5 
Springer........................  61  44  66  39 /  20  20  10   5 
Las Vegas.......................  58  44  61  41 /  30  40  30  10 
Clayton.........................  58  49  66  47 /  30  30  10   5 
Roy.............................  57  46  64  43 /  30  30  20   5 
Conchas.........................  63  52  71  49 /  30  30  20   5 
Santa Rosa......................  61  52  69  50 /  30  30  30  10 
Tucumcari.......................  61  51  70  51 /  70  30  20   5 
Clovis..........................  61  51  68  53 /  90  30  10  10 
Portales........................  61  51  69  53 /  90  20  10  10 
Fort Sumner.....................  64  52  70  53 /  50  30  20  10 
Roswell.........................  66  55  71  55 /  50  30  10  10 
Picacho.........................  64  51  69  50 /  40  40  10  10 
Elk.............................  64  48  66  48 /  50  50  10  10 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for 
NMZ201>211.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11