Wolf Creek

000
FXUS65 KPUB 301759
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moisture will start moving into the San Juans today, with some 
scattered showers/storms over the far SE plains in the afternoon.

- Incoming system will bring heavy rain to the San Juans and San 
Luis Valley. Another round of flooding is expected for these areas 
Sunday-Monday.

- Accumulating snow is expected this weekend over the mountains, 
moreso Monday-Tuesday.

- A strong cold front will arrive on the Plains Monday, with  winds 
in excess of 40 mph. Winds could prevail into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Have cancelled the dense fog advisory, as most locations have
only light fog/no fog. Still could see some very spotty visibility
near 1 mile along the Arkansas River through 9 am with some
patchy ground fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Through the rest of the overnight hours and into this morning, fog 
will return to the eastern plains thanks to ample low-level moisture 
in the region.It should mostly remain east of Pueblo County, with 
reduced visibility around 1-3 miles with locally denser areas 
possible. Remember to exercise caution when travailing. Fog will 
clear around 10am.

This afternoon, a weak shortwave will pass just southeast of our 
area aloft, bringing up precipitation from the south. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early 
evening, mainly right along the KS border. While there will be a bit 
of instability out there, around 700-1000 J/kg of CAPE, no storms in 
our CWA are expected to be severe. Most of the precipitation will 
miss our area, staying to the east of us, though a few storms may 
drift over the CO border. 

Temperatures will be in the 50s-60s across the area today, with 
breezy winds mainly out of the south and increasing cloud cover.

Moving into tonight,a trough will push into western Colorado, 
bringing the initial wave of precipitation into our western 
mountains ahead of our next impactful system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The long-term forecast has come more into focus amongst the 
different model solutions, showing cooler and much more active 
weather into early next week. 

Starting with the broader picture, two upper lows will be moving 
onshore, one from the Pacific Northwest and one on the southern 
California coast. The lows will phase with a broad upper trough, 
deepening and moving into our region by Sunday. Heavy rainfall will 
first spread over the San Juans, then to the rest of the Continental 
Divide and San Luis Valley prior to Monday. Some areas may see up to 
2 inches or so of QPF during this timeframe, and with snow levels 
initially above 11 thousand feet, almost all of it should fall as 
rain. Flash flooding is going to be a major concern across the San 
Juans and portions of the San Luis Valley, especially considering 
how much moisture those areas have received recently. For the peaks 
of the mountains, again mainly above 11 kft, expect periods of 
moderate to heavy snowfall. Heaviest accumulations will be over the 
San Juans, with almost all of the recent model guidance showing well 
over a foot by the end of the event.

The upper low will pass overhead on Monday, dragging a deepening 
surface low over the plains and sending a cold front down behind it. 
This will spread precipitation across the plains while also bringing 
in some stronger winds out of the north. Meanwhile, cooler air will 
lower snow levels across the region, down below 9000 feet by early 
Monday morning before the system pushes east. Winds will be the main 
concern over the plains, with some models showing gusts up to 50 mph 
possible, along with widespread rain showers.

The system will push east of our area on Tuesday, leaving our area 
mild and dry with breezy north winds over the eastern plains, though 
less gusty than on Monday. Temperatures will remain somewhat cool 
towards the middle of next week, with highs dropping into the 50s, 
with breezy winds and decreasing cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs with occasional high level
cirrus cigs through the period. Mountains may see some -shra
overnight into Sat morning, but expect most activity to stay
over the higher terrain and not impact any terminals. Winds will
be generally light and terrain driven today and tonight, with a
gradual increase in s-sw flow at KALS Sat morning.  

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning 
for COZ067-068.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday 
morning for COZ068.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday night 
for COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN