Arizona Snowbowl

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 151732
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1032 AM MST Tue Sep 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Arizona remains under an active pattern through the
end of the week. An area of high pressure looks to briefly build
over Arizona this weekend, keeping things rather dry. Additional
unsettled weather may return next week. Outside of precipitation,
look for seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure remains centered 
across the Pacific Northwest. This trough will gradually descend
along the West Coast through the middle of the week, before
lifting towards the weekend. This will keep Arizona under a
southwesterly flow aloft, allowing sufficient moisture to 
continue pumping into the state. Plus, this pattern will keep 
effective dynamics in place for a severe thunderstorm threat. 
Although we are not expecting widespread activity for today 
(Tuesday), hi-res guidance suggests greatest coverage of 
convection to be across the Mogollon Rim and northward. There 
could be a delayed start to activity due to a few showers/storms 
that are occurring during the overnight hours tonight. Most 
activity is across northern Gila County and the White Mountains 
at the moment, but this could easily work over the environment and
lead way to debris clouds across the area after sunrise. Areas 
that see cloud cover burn off and warm up, will likely be where 
storms/showers fire up first. 

This type of synoptic pattern leads way to greater chances for
overnight convection. Hi-res guidance has been consistent with a
large complex of showers/storms pushing up into our CWA Wednesday
morning, and remaining fairly active throughout the 
afternoon/early evening. For what it's worth, guidance over the 
last few days hasn't been the most consistent, so we'll see what 
upcoming runs say as well. Either way, we'll remain under an 
active pattern through the end of the week. 

We could see a brief break in activity over the weekend due to the
previously mentioned trough lifting and allowing a ridge to build
over the region. There will probably be a few isolated
showers/storms remaining across the White Mountains, but overall
should be drier this weekend than what we've seen this week. 

Another trough looks to impact the area early next week, so more
unsettled weather may return. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 15/18Z through Wednesday 16/18Z...ISOLD-SCT 
SHRA/TSRA through 02Z Wednesday, then ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA or partial 
clearing through 08Z-10Z. AFT 08Z-10Z, NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD 
+TSRA moving south to north through the remainder of the period. 
Areas MVFR CIGS due to low clouds and TSRA through the period.
Sfc winds S-SW5-15g20kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/18Z through Friday 18/18Z...Expect SCT-NMRS 
SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through the the period. Areas MVFR CIGS 
due to low clouds and TSRA through the period. Sfc winds outside of 
stronger convection generally light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Daily chances for 
showers/thunderstorms will continue each day, and we cannot rule
out the possibility of overnight activity too. Gusty/erratic 
winds likely in/around storms, with southerly winds 5-15 mph 
otherwise. Temperatures will gradually cool each day, landing 5-10
degrees below normal by Wednesday. 

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered to widespread 
showers/thunderstorms forecast for Thursday, becoming more focused 
across the eastern Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains Friday 
and Saturday. Outside of gusty/erratic storm driven winds, look for 
south through west winds 5-15 mph. Temperatures expected to slightly 
warm near normal through the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff