Arizona Snowbowl

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011124
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
424 AM MST Sat Aug 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A downtick in monsoonal activity is expected through 
Monday, with only isolated storms over the higher terrain of
eastern Arizona. Very hot daytime temperatures are also expected,
possibly the warmest of the year so far. A cooling trend and a 
gradual uptick in moisture are possible towards the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our downtick in monsoonal activity will continue this
weekend as a strong high pressure system remains centered over 
Arizona. This downtick will be driven by drier air working into 
the region and subsidence under the ridge. Model soundings 
indicate that capping aloft will continue to strengthen, combined
with PW dropping to the 20th-40th percentile for early August. 
Overall storm coverage and intensity this weekend will be 
suppressed. Activity will not shut off completely, still expect 
isolated storms over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona each 
day. 

The primary hazard over the next few days will be heat. The decrease 
in moisture plus above normal heights at 500 mb will lead to the 
warmest temperatures of the year so far. Low elevation areas south
of the Mogollon Rim, and the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon
and Glen/Marble Canyon will see daytime highs approach or exceed 
110 F. The Extreme Heat Warning for these areas has been extended 
until Monday, with the Grand Canyon heat warning extended until 
Tuesday. The lower elevations of northeastern Arizona will see 
above normal temperatures up to 100-105 F. The Heat Advisory for 
these areas has also been extended until Monday. Be sure to drink 
plenty of fluids and avoid prolonged outdoor activity this weekend
if you can!

The high is forecast to weaken and elongate by the early to middle 
part of next week. The current forecast calls for a cooling trend 
and uptick in moisture beginning Tuesday-Wednesday. There is still 
plenty of uncertainty at this point in the forecast, and guidance 
varies on the strength and exact placement of the ridge. However, 
the overall ensemble trend is for PW to climb back towards another 
period of active monsoonal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 01/12Z through Sunday 02/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA INVOF a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line from 19Z to 03Z. 
Gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS. Otherwise, winds 
VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 02/12Z through Tuesday 04/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon/evening INVOF KSOW/KJTC. Gusty 
outflow winds possible in and around TS. Otherwise, winds VRB 5-15
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Very hot, with the warmest 
temperatures of the year so far. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
each afternoon/evening over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. 
Winds light and variable at 5-15 mph. Minimum RH generally 
10-20%, locally higher in the White Mountains.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot with a slight cooling trend and 
increasing moisture through the period. Isolated showers and storms 
over the White Mountains Monday, with coverage increasing and 
expanding westward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime winds generally 
southwest through west at 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-
018-037-038.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM 
MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ009-010-012>014-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff